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Ukraine. Macron's defeat is dangerous for the EU and NATO. “They will knock out their teeth”

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Since the victory of the radical right in the European elections we France National Union does not leave the media headlines around the world. The presidential camp is clearly on the defensive. Emmanuel Macron he did announce that he would try to stop the group's progress Marine Le Pen in the elections, but the mood among his closest associates is negative.

Because the centrists are also losing in the polls to the leftist camp united under the banner New Popular Front feeling threatened by the extreme right. According to polls, the leftist camp counts in the fight for victory, and its support is currently around 28 percent. French. In turn, the far-right National Union can count on 31 percent. And the centrist coalition centered around the president – with about 18 percent. support – lags far behind.

France. Bruno Le Maire thunders before leaving the EU

The feeling of frustration and anger is best reflected in the statement of the Minister of Finance Bruno Le Maire'awho has already declared in “Le Figaro” that “France is going to the dogs” and a call to Kyliana Mbappe, who appealed to his compatriots to vote. The star warns against the right wing coming to power.

Le Maire is one of the most important figures in Macron's party, and one of two politicians, next to the prime minister Gabriela Attala, tipped to be the liberal candidate in the 2027 presidential election. In recent days, the minister has warned against the scenario of the presidential camp losing power. In his opinion, the coming to power of either the right or the left may ultimately lead to France's exit from the EU.

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Implementing this scenario is not that easy, and Le Maire is playing to mobilize the pro-European electorate. Nevertheless, the decisive defeat of Macron's camp in the parliamentary elections scheduled for late June and early July may have serious consequences for Paris's policy in the international arena. Are EU allies and NATO do they have anything to fear?

– Definitely yes. Emmanuel Macron is a pro-Atlantic and anti-Putin politician. Any weakening of it is dangerous. And this will happen in the event of a possible takeover of power by Marine Le Pen's group or the left-wing alliance – emphasizes Dr. Witold Sokałalecturer at the Jan Kochanowski University in Kielce and once a columnist for “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna”.

France. The impact of the elections on aid to Ukraine

The ruling camp consistently supports supporting Kiev. Before dissolving parliament, Macron even talked about the possibility of sending… Ukraine military instructors. And in June, he announced the transfer of Mirage 2000 fighters. On Monday, the “Le Monde” daily wrote that Ukrainian pilots are preparing to fly F-16 fighters in the south of France.

– The failure of the president's camp means breaking the teeth of Macron's new policy regarding Ukraine and Russia. His anti-Putin turn is beneficial for Kiev. Therefore, it is not surprising that there is strong support from external actors associated with Kremlin, for the extreme right and left. This is a big problem for the allies – emphasizes Interia's interlocutor

And as he adds: – In case of success of the right or left France may become an anti-American country and anti-Ukrainian.

In terms of foreign policy, the parties' programs differ on the issue of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The parties constituting the New Popular Front have so far been divided on this issue. Socialists and Greens supported further support for Kiev, and communists and the far left (France Untamed) emphasized that they did not want “war escalation”. In the Front program Finally, there was a point about support for Ukraine's sovereignty, among others in the context of arms supplies.

France. The right wing and relations with Russia

The National Union has been supportive so far Russia. Marine Le Pen announced in 2014 that she supported annexation Crimea by Russia, the referendum on the peninsula was fully legal, and Moscow has the right to Crimea due to “historical traditions and interests in the Black Sea”.

Her party has benefited from Moscow's financial support in the past, and although it criticized the 2022 aggression against Ukraine, it condemned the “anti-Russian attitude” of Eastern European countries and NATO's policy towards this region. And she blamed Macron “irresponsible warmongering.”

However, as “Le Monde” notes, the far right is trying to soften the discourse. It's been like this for several months no announcement about the war appeared on the website of the National Union. And Le Pen has repeatedly assured that the Russian invasion of Ukraine cannot be justified.

Witlod Sokała: Russia is destabilizing the situation in France

Witold Sokała draws attention to Russia's interference in French internal politics. – Russia has been destabilizing the situation in France for a long time. Vladimir Putin violates interests in key regions for Paris: the Middle East and the Sahel countries in Africa – says a lecturer at the Jagiellonian University in Kielce.

Moreover, Moscow has long been applying migratory pressure on EU countries, including France, which weakens governments and inflames public sentiment.

In recent months, we have seen a profound evolution in Macron's attitude towards Russia and the role of the EU. From a former opponent of EU enlargement the host of the Elysee Palace turned into a politician whose declarations arouse anger in the Kremlin.

At the same time, France is in favor of enlarging the Community and, in the years to come, admitting Ukraine to it. Paris realizes that A larger Europe that speaks with one voice will be stronger and safer, and at the same time take better care of French interests. – Macron's change in policy and attempt to oppose Vladimir Putin more forcefully meant emphasizing stronger support for Kiev. The elections could put an end to that – adds Dr. Sokała

Elections in France. Time for an “Italian scenario”?

Hence, many observers fear that France's pro-Ukrainian policy will be overturned. However, it is possible that after the elections there could be a repetition ofItalian scenario“. Giorgia Meloni after coming to power in the fall of 2022, it abandoned radical rhetoric and supports the Atlantic policy of its allies towards Russia.

– It is possible that after the elections, the radical right or left will continue Macron's policy in foreign affairs and will “slap Russia on its paws.” Of course, this will happen if right-wingers (or left-wingers) turn out to be politicians pursuing French interests, not Russian ones, as some have long suspected – points out Witold Sokała.

– The French left has long been heavily infiltrated by Russia. Additionally, anti-American attitudes are traditionally strong on the Seine and this factor will not disappear – adds our interlocutor.

Macron hated. The left criticizes the president's reforms

Macron's problem is his economic and social policy. Unpopular reforms led to increased anti-presidential sentiment. – Voters are disappointed with economic policy. Hence the strong rejection of Macron and his liberal agenda. The pension reform cost the president a lot, which envisaged violating the interests of many social groups. But this is just one of many examples, says Witold Sokała.

The reform, described by the media as a symbol of Macron's second term, was introduced higher retirement age – 64 instead of 62 years. Therefore, a complete or partial break with unpopular changes is an element of the electoral programs of the left and the extreme right. Both camps want to withdraw from the changes introduced amidst violent public opposition.

However, the president's camp does not abandon the idea of ​​retaining power.

Possible scenarios. Macron is counting on the collapse of the New Popular Front

The Élysée believes that the left-wing alliance will not stand the test of time and will fall apart after the elections, just as happened with the earlier left-wing alliance after the 2022 elections. It was plagued by divisions on domestic and international issues. In the fall of 2023, the largest grouping – the Socialist Party – suspended its participation due to differences with France Untamed in the assessment of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It is true that the left has a better bond today than a dozen or so months ago in the form of opposition to reformsbut a dispute cannot be ruled out, e.g. over Ukraine's assistance in the near future, as was the case with the Israeli-Palestinian issue after October 7, 2023, says Witold Sokała.

– Our goal is to build a new majority – said the former prime minister and one of the president's key allies Edouard Philippe. He also announced that he did not want to choose between “two extreme forces.”

The Elysée Palace calculates that after the elections, moderate forces will join the liberals. The remnants of moderate politicians from the right-wing Republican party, who can count on about 7-8 percent, would also join such a Republican camp. support.

– I wouldn't prejudge the post-election puzzles. Due to the specificity of the system on the Seine and forced cohabitation, the president, even in the event of defeat, can retain influence on the government's policy, e.g. through decrees. Although there will certainly have to be some correction in the most important issues, e.g. the attitude towards Ukraine – concludes Witold Sokała.

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