Last month the rate unemployment registered was 5 percent, the same as in July. At the end of last month, 773.7 thousand unemployed people were registered in labor offices. The lowest unemployment was recorded in the Wielkopolskie province (2.9 percent) and in the Silesian province (3.6 percent). This is according to a quick estimate by the Ministry of Family, Work and Social Policy, which will be confirmed by the Central Statistical Office on September 24.
Unemployment rate in July lowest in history
The published data for August are the lowest, taking into account all unemployment rates that have been reported since 1990. In fact, these are the best data since the Central Statistical Office has been measuring the unemployment rate. “This is just another proof that the labor market remains a stable and strong part of our economy,” rejoiced Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert of the Lewiatan Confederation in comment.
On the one hand, this is great data, but on the other hand, it is not necessarily
“Despite the slowdown in 2023, its effects on the labor market are not visible. This stability of unemployment is also an element that may affect the decisions made by the Monetary Policy Council. However, one must be aware, and NBP analysts probably take this into account, that the unemployment rate is strongly influenced by deteriorating demographics. Thus, the unemployment rate will lose its significance in economic analyses,” he wrote further.
Analysts see slightly less optimistic August data Pekao“The unemployment rate in August remained at 5.0 percent, BUT… it was close to growing. Instead of a seasonal drop in the number of unemployed, we saw an increase of 8 thousand m/m. We haven't had such a weak August since 2012, and taking into account July and August – since 2009,” they calculate.
“This is of course not a crisis, but something is clearly starting to go wrong on the labor market. We expect that such a deviation from the seasonal pattern should not last longer than 3 months. If we are wrong, then we can start to worry,” analysts warn.