Index PMI for the Polish industry in August was 47.8 points The average of economists' and analysts' expectations (published by Macronext.pl) indicated a minimal improvement in the indicator – to 47.4 points from 47.3 points in July. And this the improvement is even stronger than forecasts.
PMI for Polish industry up
The index published by the analytical company S&P Global is for five months at most. However, it is still there below the 50 point limit An indication above 50 points means an improvement in the economic situation in the industry, and below – its deterioration. In Poland, the second scenario is still in force (for twenty-eight months now, like never before in the history of the survey), but compared to the euro zone, we still do quite well. There, the preliminary reading of the PMI for the industry for August was at the lowest level in eight months (45.6 points). The negative standouts are: Germanyour main trading partner, where the PMI fell to 42.1 from 43.2 points. As can be seen, the Polish industry is resistant to the pessimism of the German market, although manufacturing companies pointed to the weak economic situation in Germany and Europe in general.
What's happening in the industry?
“In August, the decline in industry slows, and economic forecasts improve” – this is how S&P Global titles its report on Poland. The PMI for Polish industry consists of five sub-indices: new orders, production, employment, delivery times and stock of purchased items. On the plus side, the overall indicator improved for the second month in a row – In July we also observed an upward march. It may not be lightning fast, but it is there. New orders, production, production backlogs and employment are all in the red – but the declines in these sub-indices are slower than in July – another plus. According to S&P Global analysts, inflationary pressure was weak – production costs are falling and prices finished products. Forecasts for the next 12 months have also improved.
In terms of employment, the period of job cuts has already reached 27 months – the longest such sequence since 2004. But on the other hand, the pace of these job cuts was the slowest in this period. Companies that noted a reduction in their workforce most often simply did not hire new employees to replace those who left on their own, including retirement, or laid off temporary workers. Some manufacturing companies increased their employment.
“And what next?”The situation of industrial companies will most likely improve in the coming months. Macroeconomic stabilization and a rebound in consumption support better results. Forecasts for 2024 predict an increase in industrial production by 2.9 percent, and in 2025 an increase by 5.2 percent,” write experts from the Polish Economic Institute in a quick commentary. Industrial production surveyed by the Central Statistical Office in July increased, and even significantly, by 4.9 percent year-on-year compared to 0.3 percent in June. However, it was a bit of a disappointment thoughas the average of economists' expectations was 7.3 percent.
The PMI index for Polish industry has been calculated monthly since 1998, based on surveys conducted among logistics managers – in our country from approximately 200 manufacturing companies.