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US dollar drops after US inflation data. Euro, dollar, Swiss franc – quotations on 13.07.23

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The US dollar continued to decline on Thursday morning after better-than-expected inflation data in the US. The USD/PLN exchange rate fell below PLN 4 for the first time since February 2022. The zloty is also gaining against the euro.

On Friday around EUR 8.30 cost about PLN 4.44. You had to pay PLN 3.98 for the US dollar. In turn, the Swiss franc cost PLN 4.60.

US dollar down

After yesterday’s publication of CPI data in June in the US (it fell from 4% to 3%) US dollar weakened. The USD/PLN exchange rate fell below PLN 4 for the first time since February 2022 (-1.03%). Change the euro exchange rate against the Polish currency was small (+0.07 percent)” – we read in the morning commentary of Oanda TMS Brokers.

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Patryk Pyka, an analyst at the Analyzes and Investment Advisory Team at Dom Inwestycyjny Xelion, also wrote about the significant strengthening of the zloty against the dollar. “After more than a year’s break, the exchange rate again registered below the psychological barrier of USD/PLN 4” – he pointed out.

In the opinion of PKO BP economists, “the lack of a clear reaction to the EUR/PLN exchange rate after the fall of the American inflation suggests that the potential for further strengthening of the zloty in the short term is already exhausted.” “The improvement in the current account balance in May will not be as clear as in previous months (we will know the balance on Friday), which will no longer significantly support the Polish currency, and the increase in expectations for the first NBP interest rate cut already in September will, according to our assessment, start to have a negative impact on the zloty. Therefore, at the end of the week, we expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to rise above 4.45, forecast representatives of the largest bank in Poland.

On the other hand, the zloty remains stable, oscillating around 4.44 against the euro, and although the pressure from the rising Eurodollar quotations should support the valuation of emerging market currencies, we believe that another calm session will be ahead of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. millennium.

US inflation

Consumer prices in the US in June 2023 increased by 3%. year on year and by 0.2 percent. month to month. Inflation fell to its lowest level in more than two years.

“According to the reading, CPI inflation fell to 3 percent y/y in June, while core inflation fell to 4.8 percent y/y. Both readings turned out to be lower than market forecasts, which clearly improved market sentiment,” he wrote. Patrick Pyka.

“Another positive surprise is undoubtedly pleasing, but it is worth remembering that the period of the most dynamic phase of disinflation is behind us. In the coming months, CPI inflation in the US will oscillate around 3 percent and will most likely break this barrier only in the first half of 2024.” – noted the analyst of the Xelion Investment House.

Dom Maklerski XTB pointed out that the stronger than expected inflation slowdown caused euphoria on the market “and stimulates speculation that the Fed (equivalent to the National Bank of Poland – ed.) may raise rates only once more”.

Main photo source: pitchr/shutterstock

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