Magda Sakowska, Interia: Less than 100 days before the presidential election, who do you think is in a better position? Democrats from Kamala Harris are the republicans from Donald Trump?
Prof. Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Georgia: Although I think that in this election the candidates will get very similar results, the advantage now is on the side of Harris. Her situation is better. This is indicated by polls showing support on a nationwide scale, but also by recent polls done in swing states. According to these polls, Kamala Harris has a clearer path to winning 270 electoral votes than Trump (this is the minimum needed to win the presidential election – author's note). But all this can still change. The result of the election remains uncertain.
One of the closely watched states and one of the most important is Georgia, where you live. In 2020, he won in Georgia Joe Bidenbut his lead was less than 12 thousand votes. Is it within the Democrats' reach this year?
The fight will be very even. When Biden was the candidate, the situation looked much less favorable for the Democrats and they were aware of it, because there was no visible decisive action on their part to change it. Now there is a new situation and new realities and I think Harris is able to fight for Georgia. Trump would have to win Georgia. If he loses there, then in my opinion he will lose the entire election.
Not long ago, Kamala Harris was seen as a liability to President Biden. Her ratings were worse than his. She was not popular. And suddenly we are witnessing such a dramatic change. What is the basis for it?
Her perception as vice president did not align with her perception as the Democratic candidate when Biden stepped down. There are several reasons for this. The first is Biden's very poor performance during the debate, which increased fears among Democrats of losing. Voters Democratic Party They also saw that Biden was unable to effectively counter Republican criticism, and that Republicans were exploiting his weaknesses. Second, concerns about his age and ability to serve another four years were growing. All of this made it difficult for Democrats to frame their campaigns so that attention was focused on Trump, his weaknesses, his radicalism, his rhetoric that divided Americans, his constant lies.
And when Harris became the candidate, the Democrats, above all, felt a huge sense of relief. It is extremely important that the entire party got behind her very quickly, that her campaign reacted very well to the new situation, that it came out with an optimistic message. All of this gave the impetus for voters to unite around Harris so much. The good situation around Harris is also being built by some actions on the other side of the political stage.
First, the choice of JD Vance as vice presidential candidate. This decision is seen by many, even Republicans, as a mistake by Donald Trump. Vance does not contribute anything to Trump's campaign. He appeals to and has support from groups of voters who already support Trump. His views, his statements – for example on the role of women or abortion – alienate voters who do not belong to the group of Donald Trump's most ardent supporters, undecided voters, whom Republicans need. Vance is perfect for Democrats to attack, which they do constantly. There is also a very clear difference between Vance and Tim Walz, whom Harris chose as her vice president. Walz is a much more experienced politician. Walz, in my opinion, will help Democrats attract undecided voters from key states.
Some have argued that Harris should have chosen someone more moderate who could more easily connect with voters in the middle of the political spectrum—like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Do you agree?
I don't share that view. Walz's actions as governor are indeed those of a progressive politician. But on these major issues, there is no great difference between Walz and Shapiro. What you have to look for is Tim Walz's political style and personality, both of which help Kamala Harris. Walz is the guy next door, and he has a knack for campaigning. Vance is a younger Trump. At first, voters knew very little about either candidate for the second most important office in the country. But the impression they made on voters is very different.
JD Vance is neither liked nor popular, as the polls show. In the case of Walz, the reception is positive. It is true that one or another vice presidential candidate does not have a significant impact on how Americans will vote, but nevertheless, the choice of the closest associate made by the presidential candidate himself shows what guides such a politician and what style of politics he prefers.
Was Donald Trump's campaign prepared for this change in candidates on the Democratic side?
No, although he had plenty of time to prepare for it, especially since it had been uncertain for some time, but very likely, that a change would happen, because we all watched the pressure on Biden to end his campaign grow. Republicans should prepare for that.
And how is Donald Trump himself dealing with this change?
Trump is unsettled by the new situation. He has lost the advantage of Biden's weaknesses, which voters focused on. He has lost the advantage of being better received than Biden, because he was perceived as much younger than he actually is. And now the contrast is working in Harris' favor, who is almost 20 years younger than Trump. Harris is much more effective at formulating a campaign message than Biden, and this is also a problem for Republicans. What Donald Trump has been doing lately is bizarre. He is once again immersing himself in conspiracy theories about the rigged election in 2020 and now he is accusing the Harris campaign of fraud, and it is about photos of crowds at her campaign rallies. Donald Trump believes that there were no crowds, and the photos published by her aides are artificially generated.
How important will the Democratic convention in Chicago be to the ongoing race for the White House?
Very big. Chicago needs to send a signal of complete unity. The party needs to present itself as fully united around Harris. During these few days of the convention, Democrats also need to address the party's divisions, and I mean primarily the approach to the war in Gaza and the direction of Middle East policy. The convention will be a kind of test for the Harris-Walz duo.
And still ahead of us – in September – the Harris-Trump debate.
And this will be the event that will allow Harris to clearly draw a line between herself and Joe Biden. Voters watching this September debate will remember how Biden came off – his inconsistent statements, confusion and inability to rebut Trump's accusations or to firmly aggregate the various bizarre claims made by Trump. In the case of Harris, I expect her to be much more effective and voters will see that in her they have someone who can effectively counter Trump and his statements. The debate will also be an opportunity for Harris to present her program, ideas on individual issues.
Are Americans ready for a woman in the Oval Office, and a woman who is not white?
This is a fundamental question. Her origins are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, there are certainly voters who are not enthusiastic about voting for a woman, especially a black woman, but on the other hand, her origins are an incentive for many Democratic Party voters to vote. This could translate into high turnout among black voters, voters of Asian descent, and this is a group that is systematically growing. In Georgia, for example, voters with roots in Asia South Americans make up about two percent of voters. Those may not be mind-blowing numbers, but in a very close race, they could prove to be very important. And importantly, Harris is well-received by young voters.