Economic weakness in the USA
According to preliminary reading, the American gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the first quarter of 2025 0.3 percent (due to an increase of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024). Meanwhile, average forecasts assumed a slight increase (+0.3 percent). It is worth adding that it is First negative indicator in three years – In the first quarter of 2022, a decrease in GDP was 1 percent. In turn, the indicator prices gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter (compared to the increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year).
The American Bureau of Economic Analysis informed that the reason for weakening GDP was increased import and reduction of government expenditure. “These negative factors have been partly balanced by the increase in investment, consumer expenditure and exports,” we read. It also occurred in April A sharp decrease in consumer moods (by 7.9 points) to 86 – the lowest level from May 2020.
“Fatal data, crazy quarter”
The analysts of Bank Pekao noticed that import in the US increased by 41 percent, and net exports deducted almost 5 percentage points from the growth. In their opinion, the second quarter of 2025 may be “a mirror reflection of the first“Analysts write directly that” the first quarter was crazy. “” Soft data from the USA looks terrible and hard to deteriorate. There The economy will slow down strongly This year ” – we read.
MBank economists indicate that foreign trade has fallen strongly and the supplies have increased significantly. “This is an obvious effect of the customs policy” – emphasize. On the other hand, PKO BP analysts compared American GDP with the EU.” The duel on the US GDP vs EU in the first quarter was decided in favor of Europe” – we read. According to preliminary respect of GDP in the zone euro in the first quarter increased by 1.2 percent Year on year (as in the fourth quarter), and the reading was a bit better than expected (the consensus assumed 1.1 percent). “There were no fears to slow down the growth,” experts emphasize.
Donald Trump blames Joe Biden
“It's Biden's stock exchange, not Trump. I did not take power only on January 20, “explained the US President on Wednesday, April 30 Donald Trump in response to the latest economic data. “Customs will soon start working, and companies are starting to move to the USA in record numbers. Our country will flourish, but We must get rid of the 'weight' of Biden. It will take a while, it has nothing to do with the duties, but with the fact that He left us bad resultsbut when the boom begins, it will be incomparable to anything else. Be patient, “he wrote on social media.
However, during a meeting in the White House, he announced directly that if the second quarter of 2025 was weak, he was also the blame of Biden. – You can say that The next quarter will be in a sense Bidenbecause it does not happen overnight – said Trump, referring to the decline of GDP.
Reaction of the American stock exchange and dollar to economic data
The NASDAQ Composite indicator ended on Wednesday with a gentle decrease (-0.09 percent). Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the most important indices of shares of companies listed on New York has noted growth (+0.35 percent). The S&P 500 index was also slightly in the plus+0.15 percent). On the other hand dollar course It increased on Wednesday and is still growing. On Thursday, May 1 after 8 The American currency costs OK. PLN 3.79 (+0.26 percent).
Read more: “China has hit Trump. And there is proof of it. Strong braking“.
Sources: US Economic Analysis Office, Bank Pekao analysts (X), Economists of mBank (X), PKO BP analysts (X), Donald Trump (Truth Social), CNBC, Investing.com