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War in Ukraine. Analyst: There is a growing risk that China will hand over weapons to Russia

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Arms shipments from China to Russia are becoming more and more likely, said Andrew Small of the American think tank German Marshall Fund. He added that the leaders of the European Union must make it clear to Beijing that this would affect the entirety of European-Chinese relations.

Authorities USA recently assessed that China they are considering the supply of arms and ammunition to the attacker Ukraine Russia. EU diplomacy has defined potential arms shipments as a “red line” that China should not cross.

According to Andrew Small, China is still hesitant to transfer arms, but such supplies are “increasingly likely” as Moscow needs them more urgently. “They’ll probably test the ground first with gray market transfers through third parties, but I’d be surprised overall if they turned down Russian requests indefinitely,” the analyst told the Polish Press Agency.

READ MORE: Xi goes to Putin. He can also talk to Zelensky >>>

Beijing fears a common western front

In his opinion, however, China does not want to completely destroy its relations with the US and the EU. Nor do they want a united front against them in the West. – China knows that its relationship with the US still has some room to sink lower. Their relations with Europe are still far from collapsing. However, if Beijing hands over arms to Russia, these relations may deteriorate, Small points out. The immediate effect would be a new package of sanctions targeting individuals and institutions in China.

According to the expert, the Chinese government is still trying to drive a wedge between the US and the European Union in order to weaken any coalition against China and maintain access in Europe to technologies that it is increasingly difficult to obtain in the United States.

Xi Jinping’s speech in the Chinese ParliamentPAP/EPA/MARK R. CRISTINO

“But if he takes steps that make China a direct threat to Europe, creating a full Western front against China and hardening bloc politics becomes much more likely,” said Small, who is a China-US relations specialist.

According to the expert, especially EU leaders should warn China about this and emphasize how important it is for Europe. – Specific repercussions need not be listed. It is enough to make it absolutely clear to China that it will be costly and will affect the entire Sino-European relationship, believes a researcher from the German Marshall Fund.

However, China may still decide to support Russia militarily, especially if it believes that further rejection of Moscow’s requests will worsen bilateral relations, or if it judges that it is crucial to the Russian war effort and without Chinese help, Russia will lose, Small says.

READ MORE: “Russia cannot lose”, or China’s “diplomatic double game” >>>


Sino-Russian “friendship without borders”

The communist authorities of the PRC have not condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine and refrain from calling it an invasion. They also oppose the sanctions imposed on Moscow by Western countries and their allies.

Before the invasion, China and Russia declared friendship “without borders”, and after the invasion, they deepened their cooperation in many areas and conducted joint military exercises.


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