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War in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin announced his “victory theory”

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The Institute for War Studies analyzed Vladimir Putin's speech at the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. The Russian dictator presented there his theory of victory in the war with Ukraine. It assumes that Russia will win by making gradual, slow progress and preventing the Ukrainians from counter-offensive actions.

“The President of Russia announced on June 7 his theory of victory in Ukraine, which assumes the ability of Russian forces to make a gradual, creeping attack, preventing the Ukrainian side from making effective counterattacks and winning the war of attrition,” emphasizes ISW in its latest report, analyzing the speech. Vladimir Putin.

The Russian leader stated that v Russia there is no need to announce a new mobilization because Moscow does not seek to quickly achieve its goals in Ukraine. He stated that Russian forces are trying to “displace” Ukrainian forces from “those areas that should be under Russian control.”

According to him, the current mobilization efforts of the Russian authorities (referred to by experts as cryptomobilization) have made it possible to recruit 160,000 people in 2024.

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ISW: Putin wants to wait out and overcome Western aid for Ukraine

As ISW writes, Putin's assessment that a gradual attack will enable Russia to achieve its goals is based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate important areas occupied by Russia, and the aggressor's troops will be able to gradually attack and achieve tactical gains, despite huge precipitate.

ISW cites assessments from Western intelligence services, according to which Putin believes that Western support for Ukraine has ended, and the recent months of delays in deliveries have confirmed his belief. According to ISW, Putin's statements confirm that his assessment of Ukraine's capabilities and his perception of the limits of Western support will stimulate him to continue endless creeping offensive operations if he fails to act faster.

“Putin's theory of victory is based on Russia's ability to wait out and overcome the Western aid promised to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize the economy and society,” writes ISW.

The key to this theory, according to the think tank, is Putin's assumption that the West will leave Ukraine either of its own will or in response to Russia's persuasion, which is by no means certain.

ISW: The West cannot succumb to Russian efforts

“The West must proactively provide Ukrainian forces with the necessary equipment and weapons in the quantity, time and regularity needed for operations that will free significant parts of the occupied territories and undermine Putin's belief that he can gradually conquer Ukraine,” says ISW. The possibility of using Western weapons to attack the aggressor's base on Russian territory is also important for disrupting Russian operations. ISW warns that the West cannot succumb to Russia's strategic effort aimed at destroying the commitment of democratic states to Ukraine's survival and must remember that a Ukrainian victory was and is possible provided that support from the West is maintained. ISW also notes that Putin “indirectly made it clear” that Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using Western weapons do not cross “red lines” that would result in nuclear escalation.

Main photo source: EPA/ANTON VAGANOV

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