Vladimir Putin's plans are far-reaching and no ceasefire will change that, said political scientist Agnieszka Bryc from the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń in an interview, summarizing the almost thousand days of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine. In her opinion, Putin “turned Russia into a rogue state that turned aggression into an art of politics.”
In three months, in February 2025, the war will enter its fourth year of operations. The costs that Moscow has incurred so far are $211 billion, as he estimated in February this year. Pentagonand over 696,000 soldiers killed or wounded, as reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces on November 1 Ukraine – recalled Dr. Agnieszka Bryc.
Losses suffered and “new citizens”
In the opinion of the political scientist, the numbers regarding losses may be reliable, but – as she noted – “non-ethnic Russians are sent to the front first and die there.” Citing a report by the BBC's Russian service, Bryc said she was among the top five victims war in Ukraine there are Tuvans, Buryats, Nenets, inhabitants of Altai and Zabaikal.
– At the same time, in terms of demographics, the population of the Russian Federation gained 4.5 million “new citizens”, because that's how many ballots the Russian Central Election Commission issued in the so-called new territories, i.e. in the occupied four oblasts of eastern Ukraine – noted the political scientist.
Relations with China
According to Bryc Russia “it is no longer referred to as the 'east of the West', but is clearly seen as the 'north of Asia' and even as an economically reduced junior partner of China.”
When asked about the change in the relationship after 2022 between… China and Russia, the political scientist said that since then “the Kremlin has allowed economic dependence on Beijing and the transformation of the country into an annex to the economy of its Chinese neighbor and an assembly plant for its industry.” She added that there was also a “yuanization” of trade exchange, and the Chinese currency replaced the dollar and euro.
998 days ago, a full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine began Maciej Zieliński/PAP
– Resell to China and India its most valuable raw materials, Russia allows itself to be cannibalized, and Beijing or Delhi use a cheap gas station, she explained. In her opinion, “from the Kremlin's perspective, the advantage is the 'collection of Russian lands', which means the annexation of 18 percent of the territory of neighboring Ukraine.” – If Putin manages to achieve a ceasefire, he will maintain Russia's land connection with the Crimean Peninsula, which has been occupied since 2014. What's more, he may even force through formal recognition of territorial acquisitions, Bryc predicts
– Today we know that already in 2014, Russian planners assumed that by 2025 Russia would be able to destabilize Ukraine, and by 2050 – disintegrate and even lead to the “termination of the state.” Putin's plans are far-reaching and no ceasefire will change that, said the international relations specialist.
Russia's massive attack on Ukraine. Polish and allied fighters were picked upKatarzyna Sławińska/Fakty TVN
The mood among Russians
When asked about the mood among Russians themselves, Bryc noted that “already three months after the attack on Ukraine, Russians rationalized the rape of their neighbors.” Citing statistical data, the expert said that support for Putin's policy remains stable at 87 percent. – According to Russian Field, almost half of Russians support the transition to peace negotiations. Interestingly, stopping the war is most often supported by low-income people, not ultrapatriots from Kremlin circles, she emphasized.
– Russia will certainly not turn back from the path of revisionism and neo-imperial politics, nor will it abandon militarization and the ideological foundation of Russian conservatism. What is at stake is a change in the global order, namely the ending of the so-called American century. Russians believe that a great global change is taking place, in which the “global minority”, i.e. the West, will be replaced by the global majority, i.e. the so-called rest of the world, with China and Russia as the leaders – Bryc replied when asked about possible future scenarios.
Olaf Scholz had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin. Volodymyr Zelensky: this is opening Pandora's boxKatarzyna Sławińska/Fakty TVN
Potential ceasefire 'operational pause'
According to the political scientist, the ceasefire, which may take place in 2025, should be treated as “only an operational pause.”
– Thanks to it, Russia will have time to catch its breath and prepare for the final destruction of the West within two, maybe five years. This is the Kremlin's undisguised ambition and strategic goal. A temporary ceasefire will not cause the Kremlin to abandon its plans. He will only abandon them when he is forced to do so, emphasized Agnieszka Bryc.
Main photo source: RAMIL SITDIKOV/PAP/EPA