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Weather for August 2023. IMGW forecast for the second half of the summer and autumn

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The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has published a new, experimental weather forecast for the coming months. What aura will give us the end of summer and what can we expect at the beginning of autumn? Check what the meteorologists predict for August, September, October and November 2023.

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) published a preliminary weather forecast, which he describes as experimental, for the continuation of summer and the beginning of autumn. It covers the months of August, September, October and November 2023.

IMGW forecast for August 2023

According to IMGW meteorologists, preliminary predictions for August indicate that the average monthly air temperature across the country will most likely be above the long-term standard from 1991-2020.

As for the sum of precipitation, we can expect it to be close to the long-term norm.

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Temperature and precipitation forecast for August 2023IMGW

Temperature and precipitation forecast for August 2023IMGW

IMGW forecast for September 2023

In the case of September, IMGW meteorologists also expect the temperature to exceed the long-term average.

It will be different with precipitation. Meteorologists forecast that in most of the country the values ​​will fall within the long-term norm. However, in Warmia, Masuria and Podlasie, it is possible that more rain will fall than usual.

Temperature and precipitation forecast for September 2023IMGW

Temperature and precipitation forecast for September 2023IMGW

IMGW forecast for October 2023

October can be close to August. This means that throughout the country, IMGW expects higher than usual temperature values, and in the case of total precipitation – results close to the long-term norm for October.

Temperature and precipitation forecast for October 2023IMGW

Temperature and precipitation forecast for October 2023IMGW

IMGW forecast for November 2023

As for November, both in the case of temperature and total precipitation, forecasts for the whole country indicate an arrangement within the range of long-term standards.

Temperature and precipitation forecast for November 2023IMGW

Temperature and precipitation forecast for November 2023IMGW

What do the terms “above normal”, “below normal” and “normal” mean

In IMGW-PIB, as in other meteorological centers around the world, the average monthly temperature or precipitation sum for a given month is forecast in relation to the so-called long-term standard. Currently, the period 1991-2020 is considered.

The values ​​of the average monthly temperature or monthly precipitation for this period are sorted from lowest to highest. The lowest 10 values ​​indicate the temperature/precipitation in the “below standard” class, the middle 10 “normal” and the highest 10 – “above normal”.

If we are dealing with an “above normal” class, we can assume that the month will be warmer or wetter than at least 20 observed same months from 1991 to 2020. If the forecast describes it as “below normal”, it will be cooler or drier, while “normal” – similar to the 10-month averages of the comparative period.

When average temperature/precipitation is predicted:

above the normit can be assumed that the forecast month will be warmer/wetter than at least 20 observed, same months in the years 1991-2020;

below standardit can be assumed that the forecast month will be cooler/dryer than at least 20 observed, same months in the years 1991-2020;

normalit can be assumed that the forecast month will be similar to the typical 10 observed, same months in 1991-2020.

Experts remind that the forecast average temperature refers to the average temperature of the entire month, both during the day and at night. On the other hand, the forecast sum of precipitation refers to the sum of precipitation from all days in a month. The type of precipitation (snow or rain) is not specified in the forecasts.

Verifiability of long-term forecasts

As emphasized by the IMGW, despite the increasing computing power of supercomputers and extensive knowledge of weather processes, errors and differences in forecasts for such a long period cannot be avoided. The discrepancies result both from the risk of sudden (often local) meteorological phenomena that may disturb the forecasted weather processes, and from the very variety of physical assumptions and mathematical and statistical equations used in the forecasting models.

So far in advance it is not possible to describe the forecasted weather more accurately. It should be remembered that the forecast is indicative and experimental in nature, and that it concerns the average mileage for the entire forecasted region and the given forecasting period.

Main photo source: Shutterstock/IMGW



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