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Weather for February and spring 2023. Long-term experimental IMGW forecast for February, March, April, May

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Winter 2023 feels like late fall or early spring for now. What can happen in the weather from February to May? The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) presented an experimental long-term weather forecast.

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management published a preliminary report on Tuesday weather forecast, which he describes as experimental, for the continuation of winter and spring months. It covers February, March, April and May.

IMGW forecast for February

In February, the average monthly air temperature will probably be in the range of the long-term standard from 1991-2020. The same predictions are made by forecasters when it comes to precipitation.

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for February 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

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Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for February 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

IMGW forecast for March

The average monthly temperature in March should not differ from the norm anywhere. Precipitation forecasts are different. This month may be wet, as the monthly rainfall throughout Poland will most likely be above the norm.

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for March 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for March 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

IMGW forecast for April

In April, the average monthly rainfall throughout the country should be within the normal range. What else do the temperature forecasts say. It is expected that in all regions, the average monthly temperature will most likely be above the long-term norm for the years 199-2020.

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for April 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for April 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

IMGW forecast for May

He has the same predictions IMGW for May Forecasters do not predict deviations from the norm when it comes to precipitation. However, it could be another warmer than usual month. Throughout Poland, the average temperature will probably be above normal.

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for May 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

Forecast of average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for May 2023 for selected cities in PolandIMGW-PIB

What do the terms “above normal”, “below normal” and “normal” mean

In IMGW-PIB, as in other meteorological centers around the world, the average monthly temperature/precipitation sum for a given month is forecast in relation to the so-called long-term standard. Currently, the period 1991-2020 is considered.

The values ​​of the average monthly temperature or monthly precipitation for this period are sorted from lowest to highest. The lowest 10 values ​​indicate the temperature/precipitation in the “below standard” class, the middle 10 “normal” and the highest 10 – “above normal”.

If we are dealing with an “above normal” class, we can assume that the month will be warmer or wetter than at least 20 observed same months from 1991 to 2020. If the forecast describes it as “below normal”, it will be cooler or drier, while “normal” – similar to the 10-month averages of the comparative period.

When average temperature/precipitation is predicted:

above the normit can be assumed that the forecast month will be warmer/wetter than at least 20 observed, same months in the years 1991-2020;

below standardit can be assumed that the forecast month will be cooler/dryer than at least 20 observed, same months in the years 1991-2020;

normalit can be assumed that the forecast month will be similar to the typical 10 observed, same months in 1991-2020.

How to interpret classes

IMGW forecasters warn that the forecast of the average air temperature “above the norm” does not mean that there will be, for example, only days with a maximum temperature above 10 degrees C, and the forecast “below the norm” – that we will only have days with a minimum temperature below 10 degrees C. In fact, a “below normal” average temperature forecast does not exclude days with a maximum temperature above 10 degrees C, and an “above normal” forecast – days with a minimum temperature below 10 degrees C.

Experts remind that the forecast average temperature refers to the average temperature of the entire month, both during the day and at night.

Also, the forecast of the sum of precipitation “above normal” does not mean that there will be intense rainfall and storms, and the “below normal” forecast does not rule out the possibility of such phenomena. The forecast total precipitation refers to the total precipitation for all days of the month. The type of precipitation (snow or rain) is not specified in the forecasts.

Verifiability of long-term forecasts

As emphasized by IMGW, despite the increasing computing power of supercomputers and extensive knowledge of weather processes, errors and differences in forecasts for such a long period in the future cannot be avoided. The discrepancies result both from the risk of sudden (often local) meteorological phenomena that may disturb the forecasted weather processes, and from the very variety of physical assumptions and mathematical and statistical equations used in the forecasting models.

So far in advance it is not possible to describe the forecasted weather more precisely. It should be remembered that the forecast is indicative and experimental in nature, and that it concerns the average mileage for the entire forecasted region and the given forecasting period.

Main photo source: PAP/Marcin Bielecki



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