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Weather for July 2023. Holiday forecast for Poland. When will the African heatwave hit?

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On Friday, tens of millions of Americans were affected by extreme heat warnings. North Africa swells with heat, where temperatures in Morocco have reached 46 degrees Celsius, breaking local records. Meanwhile, the heat calculated by meteorological models over Europe touches only its southern ends. Arleta Unton-Pyziołek writes about what can be seen in the forecasts for July, if and when a heat wave should be expected in Poland.

The heat wave in Central Europe, which has been visible in the forecasts for a long time, is shifting in time with each successive calculation of meteorological models. Even on Thursday, June 29, they indicated 35 degrees Celsius for July 10, but on Friday they were 34 degrees C, and a day later, July 11.

Although the heat is oppressive, we don’t have much of it in our cool and cloudy Poland. A blast of heat from sunny Italy or Spain brings joy to many of us, especially to people resting on the Baltic Sea. A trip to the hot subtropical latitudes of the Mediterranean Sea is, after all, a dream vacation. Therefore, looking through the forecasts and announcements of a heat wave from time to time, many ask themselves: “where is the heat, who stole the hot summer?!” It was caused by the European monsoon, a phenomenon associated with the waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Deviation of the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean from the long-term average for the years 1971-2000Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weather for July 2023. Holiday weather forecast for Poland

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The Atlantic Ocean, the forge of weather for Europe, is a huge cauldron. The temperature of its surface waters is currently 5-6 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average (1971-2000). The warm ocean is a source of steam and fuel for the great eddies of air that spin near the coast of Europe. While a high pressure and a great heat wedge develops over the USA, in which the temperature in many states rises to 40 degrees Celsius, in our country, eddies of air from the Atlantic keep the hot African masses in check and do not allow them to penetrate into the continent. Hence, the temperature in Poland, instead of reaching 35 degrees C, sometimes reaches or exceeds 25-27 degrees C.

The temperature in Europe on Friday, June 30Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

The temperature in the United States on Friday, June 30 Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Front after front over Poland

On Saturday, a cold front rolls over Poland, and on Sunday another one will enter, with billowing clouds and occasional showers. Both are associated with the Otto Low, which over the North Sea and Scandinavia develops into a great vortex, pushing air towards us from the west. This is often the case in the second half of June and early July: when a wedge of heat with air circulation from the south brings a killer heat over North America, a bay of coolness develops over the Atlantic. It can even reach deep into the continent and spoil the summer in Poland.

Then there are large thermal contrasts between eastern and western Europe. Poland is then in the heart of weather clashes, as several waves of fronts roll over the continent storms and downpours. It gets really dangerous when the lows dive into subtropical latitudes, over the Mediterranean, and there they turn into flood whirlpools, turning north again and tearing barrels of water.

Circulation from the west over EuropeGFS/tropicaltidbits.com

When will it be hot? The heat moves away in time

Waves of rain and thunderstorms in June and July have been called the European Monsoon. This year, the summer monsoon prevents the heatwave from spreading for longer, as it pushes masses of polar air from the west over western and central Europe every now and then.

However, the heat is still visible in the forecasts – the models do not give up, although they move the hot summer in time. The heat from Africa is seething and will finally burst, and the shockwave will move towards us. In the light of the calculations of the global GFS model, the heat wave can be seen after July 8, and around July 11 the temperature may increase to 34-35 degrees Celsius.

However, for a longer heat, free from thunderstorms, we have nothing to count on. More storms may roll in on July 12, and the temperature in the forecasts for the rest of the month will jump up and down like a child on a trampoline. The impressive lows of the Atlantic will eventually have to give way to summer stormy lows from southern Europe, and when the continent heats up – highs from central and eastern Europe. Those who are waiting for the hot and lazy summer weather must be patient.

Forecast maximum temperature for July 11 in EuropeGFS/tropicaltidbits.com

Author:Arleta Unton-Pyziołek

Main photo source: Kamil Zajaczkowski/Shutterstock/GFS/tropicaltidbits.com

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