Weather for March 2025. “Another strong winter episode on the horizon”. Long -term forecast

Winter is coming to an end, but her departure will not be abrupt. Although the temperature on Monday, February 24 increased to 15 degrees Celsius in Słubice, on Saturday, March 1, the first meteorological day of spring, it will not be so nice. On this day, thermometers can show in places a maximum of about 6-7 degrees C.

A heat wedge currently reaching from Spain to Finland will give way at the end of the week of the place of the Russian cold bay. Unfortunately, the temperature trend for March is not uniformly growing. Before it gets completely warm, idyllic and spring, we will face several turmoil. The weather for March is at the moment forged far from our country, but we have the opportunity to see how it is thicker it should look.

The first March cooling will come at the beginning of the month. Then, along with the air flowing from the north, a cool front will enter Poland with low snow rainfall.

After this wave, the cold cinema of heat will slide around around 5 March, wide, because it was spilled from Spain and Italy, to the Baltic Sea and Sweden. According to the American GFS model, the temperature in Poland can rise to 18 degrees Celsius in the south of the country, and with a stronger gust of phenomenal wind to even 20 degrees Celsius in the foothills. It will get warm like the Mediterranean Sea, because the sun will shine strongly, and the weather will be shaped by the Italy. However, the European ECMWF model, although drawing a similar heat wedge, does not give such strong temperature increases. But a weaker or stronger gust of heat will occur. Idylla, unfortunately, is to take a short time.

In March, in the light of the latest calculations of meteorological models, another winter episode will appear, quite strong and visible on a distant horizon. Its arrival announces the course of the Nao North Atlantic Oscrelation indicator. This sensitive indicator of air circulation in the cool half of the year, over the North Atlantic and Europe, draws trends well in the near future. Related to the Icelandic Lowland and the Azorski Wyżm, he reflects strong Western and Atlantic circulation when its values ​​are positive. However, when they are negative, it means the dominance of the meridian circulation, generally cold, northern. It means the development of highlighting over Europe, inhibiting the influence of Atlantic lowlands on the weather.

The latest calculations of the American National Administration of the Ocean and Atmosphere (Noaa) show that in March we will have a replay of the weather of February. Similarly to four weeks ago, in the first decade of March, mild air circulation from the west and southwest is to be seen, visible in the course of the NAO indicator in the range of positive values. Later, the direction of the influx of air masses to the north, raw, visible in the “rolling” of the indicator in negative values ​​is to change. In a simplified way, it can be said that just like after February 15, similarly After March 10, the barrical situation will start to develop, enabling the rafting of the arctic air. When cold air from under the pole flowed in the second half of February, the temperature in Poland fell in places below -20 degrees C. In March, such a strong decline is unlikely to be, but the cold from the north can be very unpleasant for a while.

Is there really a chance for an arctic charge in March? By all means. Just look at the last forecasts of the American model GFS, calculating a strong air circulation disorder over the Arctic. At a height of 30 kilometers, in the stratosphere, there is to be a strong penetration of the heat from the Pacific into the North Pole. Around 9 March, instead of a temperature of -80 degrees Celsius, there will be only -20 degrees C. This means that the warm masses will push the polar vortex from his home region and push cold masses of air over North America and Europe.

The time of winter is coming to an end, and the powers of arctic masses are weakening, but the cold, which is to flow into our region of the world, can bring a temporary decrease in temperature calmly to -10 degrees C.

Such a development of the situation will disturb the zone circulation in Europe and the Atlantic. There is a good chance that After March 10-12, the tongue of the coolness from the Arctic to the Alps and the Carpathians will expand. It can first bring rainfall with snow and snow, then dissolving and waves of frost.

The temperature at a height of 1.5 km above Poland can be -12/-13 degrees Celsius, which means similar values ​​at the ground at night. But in March, when the cyclones of moderate width are already raging in the Atlantic, the life of the sinus of coldness is not long. It all depends on how long the Scandinavian wage perseveres, which in mid -March is to strengthen over northern Europe. Today, a cold tentor developing dangerously from the Russian Arctic to Poland and Ukraine can be seen in the forecasts of the GFS model. It can affect the weather by March 20.

Forecasts for the development of the baric situation for the second half of the month are also dangerous. Wyż from Scandinavia will have to glide sooner or later east and and end the raw northern circulation will give way to a gentle, southern place.

But dry highlands are to continue to affect the weather in March, which can be seen in rainfall forecasts. According to forecasts from the American Agency Noaa, as from the European Medium -term Weather Forecasts, the European Center, March is to be very dry. This is very bad information for the waking naturethe more that we have been noting a rainfall deficiency for months. There is also no water supply in the snow cover, which is lacking at the end of winter.

The forecast deviation of the sum of monthly precipitation from the norm is to be drastic, especially in the south -east of Poland. According to the European Center, each subsequent week of March is to be characterized by a shortage of rainfall, except for the week from 10 to 17 March, when slightly more rainfall appears in the northwestern part of Poland. But it will be a drop in a sea of ​​needs.

Professionals from global atmosphere believe that Pacific may affect the spring weather in Europe. There, the surface of the circular waters are currently cooler than usual, There is a phenomenon of La Nina. There are more and more voices that The warmer and drier spring can be associated with this anomaly in Central and Western Europe. The more that the ECMWF forecasts both on March and the next two months indicate medium pressure over our continent. To dominate them to be far over the Atlantic and northern Europe. Thus, it can be initially forecast that after the moderately mild first decade of March and cold second, there will be a heat phase. The influx of air from southern Europe and even North Africa in the third decade of the month would bring a truly spring aura, but without rainfall, which would have a “strategic meaning” for nature.

The average monthly temperature in March is to last above the norm from many yearsbut such forecasts are already becoming a standard. The deviation from the norm can be up to 2-3 degrees C. Forecasted by American and European research centers of Wymy in moderate widths of the Northern Hemisphere are to dominate spring. In winter, they usually mean raw weather, in spring everything begins to change.

The high pressure zone is higher temperature values, but less rainfall. March, considered the beginning of the warmer part of the year, was in our history with a moist, capricious, storm month. This year there will be snow and rain, but there will be enough of them. Tired of gloomy in winter, we will take warmth and sun at the end of the month with open arms, but this may be the beginning of further problems in agriculture, gardening, and fruit -growing.

GFS is an American numerical model of long -term weather forecasting. Forecasts reach 16 days. The model is updated four times a day. The ECMWF model is a model developed by the European Middle -term Center Weather Forecast. His forecasts reach 10-15 days, is updated twice a day.