Weather for November 2023. The season of large, stormy hurricanes has begun. What will November be like?

The sky over Poland was covered with steel-gray clouds, drawn from the North Sea than Cord wandering towards Finland. Thick-layered clouds form over the seas and oceans and are later pushed inland. Thanks to the great temperate cyclones from the Atlantic, they are now sweeping over Europe, from Dublin through Warsaw and Stockholm, to Moscow and Arkhangelsk.

I look at them from a safe distance, looking through satellite photos with a cup of hot autumn tea scented with almonds. And there is something to look at, because the season of great storm surges has just begun, inspiring respect, just like tropical cyclones in intertropical latitudes.

Southern England, Normandy and Brittany are preparing for Cyclone Ciaran and wind gusts of 150 kilometers per hour. Waves up to 12 meters high are expected to hit the coast of western France. Even we, hidden deeper in our European apartment, will feel the Atlantic storm, because wind gusts may reach 80 km/h at the end of the week.

The cozy autumn is coming to an end. The last days of October, paths and sidewalks covered with golden leaves, the sun shining through the tree branches and the mild air improved the mood of most of us and put us in a good mood for the late autumn that has just begun. But now is the time to prepare your home to survive the cold and dark months. Blankets, sweaters, candles and books will make life more pleasant, which can be demanding in Poland from November to March. They will help brighten the approaching darkness.

On November 1, the day in Warsaw will last less than 10 hours and the night will last over 14 hours. Thirty days later, on the last day of November, the sun in the capital will rise late, just before 7:30 a.m., and set at 3:26 p.m., which means that the length of the day will be only 8 hours. We will spend a large part of our lives under artificial light. But if the weather turns out to be kind, November can have a lot to offer. Especially since the latest forecasts keep the greatest cold far away from us, over western and northern Europe. For us, Atlantic cyclones have more mercy for now.

November begins with a slight cooling. After the cold front passed, fresh polar air flowed in straight from the Norwegian Sea and Scandinavia. On All Saints’ Day, the temperature will only increase to 8-11 degrees Celsius in the north, 12 degrees Celsius in the center and 13-15 degrees Celsius in the south of Poland. But in the following days of November we will return to higher values. Although the weather will be typical autumn, it will not be cold for now.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a warm November, with the average monthly temperature deviating from the norm by about 2 degrees, which is not surprising, and includes the next month of this year in a strong trend of climate warming. This generally wet month is expected to feature normal rainfall, with slightly higher than usual amounts in Silesia, Lesser Poland and Podkarpacie. Low pressures from the Mediterranean Sea, whose potential is comparable to Atlantic cyclones, may also come to the fore.

Poland will be in the dominant air stream flowing from the west, with breaks for warmer masses from the south. Until the middle of the month, the circulation is to be controlled by great moderate-latitude cyclones, i.e. low-pressure whirlpools that were born and matured over the surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean heated in summer. They are so strong that in the coming days they will definitely hit the Russian high and push the system drawing heat from the south far to the northeast.

The pressure field maps drawn today in the GFS global meteorological model are picturesque, but they mean variable weather, windy with rain, but with quite warm nights and no frost. The Cord, Dieter and Ciaran (Emir) lows stretching over Europe on November 1 are a classic of late autumn. Across thousands of kilometers, from Iceland to Tunisia and Greece, they will dictate the weather in the west and center of the continent. On November 2 and 3, they will bring heat from as far as northern Africa, but on November 4 it will begin to be displaced from the west by the polar masses pouring into Tunisia. In Poland, we can even record 18-19 degrees Celsius in Silesia and Lesser Poland.

Later, the temperature in the afternoons will generally exceed 10 degrees Celsius, rising locally to even 14-15 degrees Celsius. The clear weather will bring noticeable warmth, but there will be moderate and quite strong winds blowing from the west and south, sometimes gusting up to 60-80 km/h. h, and at the seaside and in the mountains up to 90 km/h, will lower the temperature. But most importantly, according to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, the period until November 5 will be much warmer than normal, by up to 5 degrees in the southeast.

After the heat wave, cooling is expected to begin on November 6, because a large cyclone centered in the British Isles will push masses of colder air from the North Atlantic. A gulf of cold will develop over Europe from Iceland and Norway to the Iberian Peninsula, the Alps and the Sudetes, visible in the forecast of average temperature deviation from normal according to ECMWF.

However, the maximum temperature in Poland will generally remain above 10 degrees Celsius. Around November 10, the circulation from the western sector will begin to weaken, and a stronger exchange of air masses from the north-south will begin. This will allow warmer masses to flow from the south, especially over eastern Poland, which may result in an increase in temperature to nearly 15 degrees Celsius in the Carpathian Foothills. However, the west will remain cold. This is where a very humid low pressure from Italy, moving towards Russia, will come into play. It is expected to bring heavy downpours to Poland – around November 11. Moreover, according to the American GFS model, heat from the Middle East is to be brought to Poland, which will enable the temperature to increase to approximately 14 degrees Celsius in the south and east. As the barometric system quickly moves north, a new chapter in weather will soon begin. It will get cold and foggy.

The fronts entering Poland are expected to bring rain, but there is no snow at all. The forecast amounts of rain accumulated by mid-month according to the GFS model are up to 20-50 liters of water per square meter.

We will record large amounts of rainfall in the south and center of the country. The highest average monthly rainfall for November is approximately 60-70 l/sq m. for the Coast, Pomerania and foothill regions. Moreover, it ranges from 30 to 50 l/sq m, which means that in many places we will reach the norm by the middle of the month.

What’s next? Statistics show that after November 15, anticyclonic weather should prevail – the so-called rotten high pressure will appear. It will bring a windless and foggy aura. Although the forecasts show the development of a high pressure over Russia and the Balkans, will the great Atlantic cyclones give up and allow the masses from the interior of the continent to rule? According to ECMWF forecasts, the dynamics of air mass circulation over Europe is completely stagnant. The forecasts show a weaker flow of cold from the north over the western regions of Europe, but also a weaker arrival of warm masses from the southeast into our region.

Maps with rainfall forecasts, which are expected to remain normal over the entire continent, are also drying out. The situation is well illustrated by the temperature deviation forecast for the period from November 20 to 26. The average temperature is expected to be within the norm, with a slight deviation towards warm in the southeast. The last days of November are expected to pass in eastern Europe in warmer than usual air masses, possibly even flowing from subtropical regions. Maybe they will also touch eastern Poland, which is visible in the forecast of average temperature deviation from the norm in the period from November 27 to December 3. However, what is more likely is the inflow of continental polar air masses from the east, which may occasionally form low stratus clouds with drizzle and fog. One thing follows from these model calculations – the second half of November promises to be quite calm, but not warm enough to compensate for the longer and longer darkness.

The heat waves forecasted until mid-month are a good opportunity to look at autumn and look for beauty in the surrounding world, which will give us strength. At this time, it is also good to follow the advice of Tove Jansson, author of “Moomin Valley in November”, because “the peaceful transition of autumn into winter is not an unpleasant period at all. Then you protect various things, gather and hide as many supplies as possible. It is pleasant to collect everything you have, right next to you, as close as possible, store your warmth and thoughts and hide in a deep hole, inside, somewhere safe, where you can defend what is important and valuable, and your own.