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Weather in spring 2023. American long-term forecast

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Meteorologists from the American portal AccuWeather have prepared a long-term weather forecast for spring 2023 for Europe. As they write in their predictions, in some countries the arrival of this season will be delayed. There will also be places where the coming months will be marked by a dynamic aura. Check out what awaits us in the weather in the coming months.

What can we expect in Europe in spring weather? Experts from the American AccuWeather portal presented their predictions for the coming months.

>>> READ MORE: The first day of spring 2023. When is the beginning of astronomical and calendar spring

Where will winter stay?

A few days ago, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center officially announced that the La Nina weather anomaly, which has persisted in the Pacific for the past three years, is beginning to weaken. According to their forecasts, from the summer, the opposite of La Nina – El Nino – will begin to dominate.

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>>> Read more: NOAA experts warn of El Niño. If it occurs, its impact will be powerful

La Niña weather anomalyAdam Ziemienowicz/PAP/REUTERS

However, before that happens, we will have a few weeks of the so-called “neutral phase”. AccuWeather meteorologists believe that it will shape weather patterns throughout the spring and possibly into early summer as well. Therefore, taking this factor into account in their predictions, they concluded that from late March to early June there will still be some cold air. This forecast applies mainly to the northern part of the continent. Scandinavia, but also parts of Great Britain or Alpine regions – regardless of the calendar – are supposed to be in the middle of the winter season at times. Snowfall is possible there. In these parts of Europe, March can even bring anomalies in terms of rainfall. Periods may also sprinkle in other parts of the continent.

According to AccuWeather experts, a weather phenomenon called “sudden stratospheric warming” is responsible for the cold. It occurs every few years and is caused by disturbances in the upper atmosphere of the Earth, where the so-called polar vortex is located – a band of cold, strong gusts of wind circulating around the polar regions of the Earth. Sometimes it happens that they begin to weaken, the consequence of which is the descent of cold air masses from the stratosphere to the surface. However, when this phenomenon occurs, the stratosphere warms rapidly.

Spring 2023 in Europetvnmeteo.pl for AccuWeather

The gentle face of spring

According to forecasts, the cool conditions that are expected to prevail at the beginning of spring will gradually calm down. Therefore, already later spring will become calm and pleasant – in any case, in the northern regions of the continent, as well as in the east.

“The UK and Ireland may experience a sharp rise in temperature towards the end of April, but it may eventually approach historical average,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

The trend may continue for some time, but it is possible that it will be interrupted by cool or even frosty episodes. Therefore, the entire average temperature may turn out to be close to the long-term average. It will be similar in the case of precipitation – their forecast sum may range from “within normal” to “slightly above normal”. This could exacerbate the problems of water scarcity and drought.

The storm predictions for this part of Europe are comforting. According to AccuWeather, so far the British Met Office has only distinguished one name storms this season, which runs from October to March. For comparison – last year’s season already brought six named gales. For the experts at AccuWeather, it’s a sign that the coming weeks won’t be as windy.

>>> Also check: “The temperature will rise.” How long will the warmth stay with us?

Flood risk

The situation may be quite different in southern and south-western Europe. Countries such as Italy and the Balkan countries may experience heavy downpours this spring, raising concerns about flooding and damage.

“Given how warm the Mediterranean is, storms can provide additional moisture and lead to an increase in flood risk,” Roys said.

However, more intense rainfall will please the inhabitants of the Alpine regions, which are beginning to suffer from the problem of water shortage. According to AccuWeather experts, currently in most of the Swiss, Austrian and Italian Alps, the water level in rivers is 60-70 percent lower than typical values. More rainfall will undoubtedly reduce the losses for agriculture resulting from a not very snowy winter.

In Italy, however, downpours can be accompanied by strong gusts of wind, hail and floods, which is not so optimistic, write American meteorologists.

Stork calendarMaciej Zieliński, Adam Ziemienowicz/PAP

Thunderstorms in Central Europe

When spring gains momentum, it can show its violent face also in the central strip of the continent, stretching from France, through Germany and Poland, to Estonia. According to experts, in France there are already signs of a change in weather conditions, which was manifested, for example, by whirlwinds that passed through the commune of Pontarion in the first decade of March.

However, meteorologists reported that it was in Germany and Poland that the models showed the highest probability of strong storms.

>>> Read also: Weather forecast for spring and summer. IMGW presents its predictions

Dry and hot

The first weeks of spring will also be dynamic in western Spain and Portugal.

“With the onset of spring in the Iberian Peninsula, unsettled conditions may set in, but will be followed by dry and hot weather,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.

Exceptional heat is also to spill over south-eastern Europe. The highest temperatures are expected in May and early June. Regions from Rome to Bucharest, which have experienced April or May weather in recent weeks, will continue to see an upward trend in temperatures. Such conditions are predicted for at least a few months, but as US meteorologists note, they will be interrupted occasionally by periods of wet weather. In the Balkans and south-eastern Europe, it can sometimes thunder.

Main photo source: Shutterstock/AccuWeather

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