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Weather. When will it be warm? Forecast for March in Poland – when will spring come? Blog synoptyk tvnmeteo.pl Arlety Unton-Pyziołek

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The weather in Poland has been exciting lately. How long will the weather swing last? Do you see spring in the forecasts? For some time, it has been looming in the tunnel of calculations of meteorological models, but its light is getting slightly more distant with each passing day. Arleta Unton-Pyziołek writes about the latest predictions for the coming days and weeks.

On March 10, the mating song of blackbirds sitting on the tops of snow-covered trees in the center and north of the country sounded almost surreal. A few hours later, the juxtaposition of pictures from different regions of Poland looked equally strange. In sunny Podkarpacie and Lesser Poland, the temperature sometimes reached almost 20 degrees Celsius, while in Pomerania, Warmia Masuria and Podlasie it was snowing at a temperature of -2 and -3 degrees. IN Tarnów the temperature rose over 19 degrees, but on Saturday it will drop to 7-8 degrees, and on Sunday to only 4 degrees.

How long will the weather swing last? Although it is typical for March, it does not change the fact that it is tiring, and many of us are even irritated. It is a symptom of the spring solstice, the transition from a grueling winter with little sunlight to spring. The body has to cope with the change of seasons in a relatively short time, which is accompanied by large temperature differences between day and night, and also in just a few days. Fast exchange of air masses, passage of fronts, strong pressure fluctuations cause fatigue, weakness and distraction.

But nature itself is not having it easy now. The reconstruction of the temperature field over Europe is underway. Typical of winter, the meridional distribution of the temperature field, i.e. the transition from warm in the west to cold in the east, turns into a latitudinal distribution, from a hot belt stretching over southern Europe to a cool belt over the northern reaches of the continent. This process is accompanied by pushing the increasingly stronger heat with the already weakening cold. Temperature fluctuations, as well as the latest forecasts for the coming days and weeks, show that the cold will not give up without a fight, and we will wait for the real spring.

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Heavy snowfall in SzczecinPhoto from March 10PAP/Marcin Bielecki

Heavy snowfall in SzczecinPhoto from March 10PAP/Marcin Bielecki

Tourists on Gubałówka on a warm and sunny dayPhoto from March 10PAP/Grzegorz Momot

Tourists on Gubałówka on a warm and sunny dayPhoto from March 10PAP/Grzegorz Momot

Cooling down on the weekend

In late February and early March, the weather was shaped by the weakening and disintegrating polar vortex, the core of which was moving over northern Europe towards Siberia. This was conducive to the sliding of cold Arctic air masses over the North Atlantic and Europe. Each drop of cold was an impulse for the formation of mid-latitude cyclones, whirlwinds of air moving from west to east, dragging warm and cold masses alternately.

On Friday, Poland found itself in the warm segment of the low-pressure vortex, but on Saturday, with its movement over Eastern Europe, the country will be in the rear, cool part of the vortex. On Friday, the midday temperature reached 11-13 degrees Celsius in the center of the country, and on Saturday it will only reach 1 to 5 degrees. But thanks to the fact that the flowing air mass is rich in moisture, we will not notice a strong drop in temperature at night. On Monday morning, just before the entrance of the warm front, the temperature in the north of the country may drop to -8/-10 degrees, while in the dry Arctic air mass it would drop to at least -15 degrees in clear weather.

Temperature forecast for Saturday noonClimate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Forecast for March. Weather swing to the end

Until the end of March, we will have a swing and strong variability of the weather. After cooling down on the weekend of March 11-12, at the beginning of next week there will be a short warming up with temperatures up to 11-14 degrees in the south of the country. A heat wedge will bring temperatures at 1.5km up to 10 degrees, but on Wednesday it will give way to another wave of cold, seen as a bay of cold late next week with temperatures at 1.5km dropping to -8/-10 degrees . This will be reflected in low temperatures near the ground, just a few degrees above 0 degrees during the day, and a slight frost at night.

Heat Wedge Tuesday March 14th. Temperature at an altitude of 1.5 kmwetter3.de

Temperature forecast for Friday, March 17 in the morningClimate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Air circulation over Europe is to be strongly swinging by the end of March, and in this swing very consistent. In the forecasts, it equitably gives the fields once to the warm masses, once to the cold ones. Around March 19-20, another wave of cold is to be released over Poland, in which the temperature in the north of the country may dive to -5/-10 degrees when the weather clears. The drop in temperature is to be favored by a vast sunny high from Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea.

On the first day of calendar spring, March 21, however, we have a chance for a blast of spring air. The high-pressure moving to the east will start cooperation with the low-pressure from the British Isles, which bodes well. These baric systems are supposed to pump heat from the south, visible in the forecasts in the form of a wedge from North Africa, reaching definitely France and Germany. In Poland, it is supposed to raise the temperature that day to 10-12 degrees in the west. Later, the heat can penetrate Poland, and, like on Friday, March 10, raise the temperature on March 22-23 to spring values ​​of 16-17 degrees.

Heat Wedge on Wednesday March 22. Temperature at an altitude of 1.5 kmwetter3.de

Maximum temperature forecast for Thursday, March 23wetter3.de

Longer warming only in April?

Storm cyclones, however, will not let up. After March 23, another vortex of air powered by cold from the far north is spinning in the forecasts. And another wave of cold will reach Poland around March 25-26. This means that we can expect lasting warmth only in April. The more so that the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasts a big cooling at the end of the month. Between March 20 and March 26, the average air temperature is 1-2 degrees below the average, which is a significant value per month.

Forecast of temperature deviation from the average for March 20-26 from the long-term norm for this monthECMWF

The weather in March is a challenge for anyone who does not tolerate high variability of the weather. It is also a great “trial by fire” and “headache” for a meteorologist trying to show even a lasting trend in the course of the weather. This year, the only trend clearly visible in the weather models for March is strong volatility. Forecasters in this duel with the unstable weather and the now recalcitrant global GFS meteorological model are pressed on the lips of the words “End your …”.

Author:Arleta Unton-Pyziołek

Main photo source: PAP/Grzegorz Momot / Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

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