From PLN 299 billion to PLN 466 billion – this is how much it will be necessary to invest in the district heating sector by 2050 – a new analysis shows. Cutting emissions in line with the goals set by Poland and the European Union is possible, but it will not be easy.
The report on the transformation of the heating sector was prepared by an industry organization that brings together, among others, the largest companies in the sector – the Polish Thermal Energy Society (PTEC). These are companies such as Veolia, PGE PNGiK and Tauron, which own thermal power plants and heating networks.
Poland is a European giant when it comes to district heating, and the Warsaw district heating network is the largest in the entire European Union. Across the country, district heating systems provide heating and hot water to up to 15 million people.
However, these are still largely coal-fired heating and power plants. This will change quickly, but before we reach a low-emission and finally zero-emission system, we will have to focus heavily on gas – the industry believes. Removing coal from heating is a process that is already underway and will significantly accelerate in the coming years.
Investments in gas and new technologies
Company representatives who discussed the report at Tuesday's press conference had no doubt that the energy transformation in Poland was already taking place and the heating sector was “on the threshold of huge changes.”
The European Union has set itself the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This means that during this time we must get rid of the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change (and, consequently, among other things, they worsen floods such as in August in Poland).
When it comes to electricity production, the transformation scenario is relatively clear. To put it very simply: coal will be replaced primarily by renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power plants, and nuclear power plants, supported by batteries and other energy storage methods (bioenergy and hydrogen may also play a role).
But when it comes to heating, the situation is not so clear. Using renewable energy sources to power large-scale heat pumps is possible, but the question remains on what scale. Coal can be replaced with gas whose combustion is less emissive, but it is still a fossil fuel. Fossil gas could be replaced with emission-free gas fuels, but this is still a thing of the future. We can burn biogas, but it is also needed in other sectors.
According to the analysts who prepared the PTEC report, a mix of different technologies will be necessary. And representatives of companies from the industry emphasized that it is necessary to tailor solutions to specific places, because heating systems differ significantly, even in terms of scale.
According to industry representatives, we will not avoid the role of fossil gas in the transformation of heating. Its consumption would increase significantly in the next decade, but in the 2040s it would be replaced by alternative fuels. The advantage of such a scenario is that the fuel will change and the same installations will continue to be used.
Almost 500 billion for transformation
According to the authors of the analysis, the total cost of transforming heating systems in Poland is between PLN 299 and 466 billion by 2050.
The largest part of this will be spent on investments in heat-generating installations – new gas units in combined heat and power plants, installations based on renewable energy sources, heat storage facilities. Another PLN 100 billion will have to be spent on transmission infrastructure (some of it is old networks from the times of the Polish People's Republic), and PLN 115-149 billion will be spent on the modernization of receiving installations.
Who will pay for it? The industry's ambition is to maintain the prices of heat from the network at such a level that it is competitive with individual heating. There is already a situation in Poland where, due to costs, apartment blocks decide to disconnect from heating networks and rely on their own sources, such as heat pumps combined with photovoltaics.
Some of the money for the transformation may come from European funds. The National Reconstruction Plan includes PLN 40 billion for the green transformation of cities, which can be spent, for example, on emission-free heat. However, EU money will not even cover most needs. Most of the funds will have to come from the private sector, including national and European banks.