Why are there fewer and fewer Poles and more and more Spaniards? Immigration according to Jarosław Kaczyński

On October 5, during a meeting with the inhabitants of Busko-Zdrój, Deputy Prime Minister and president of Law and Justice, Jarosław Kaczyński, talked about the threats related to migration to Europe. “The issue of relocation of migrants concerns our sovereignty, dignity and, ultimately, our security – in the most directly understood sense,” Kaczyński argued. He referred, among other things, to the statements of Manfred Weber, chairman of the European People’s Party, who argued for the so-called migration pact, saying that there are “no more apartments” in some Western European countries. “Where should we look for these apartments – in Poland at the expense of our citizens – because that’s how it sounded?” asked the PiS president. He added that “threats such as loss of apartment – may arise at some point.”

The PiS president further mentioned the long-term consequences of the influx of immigrants and the natural increase in the population of people of migrant origin. “This will completely change the situation, because most of them do not come to work. There are very different people among them, also very dangerous to the environment – from terrorists to ordinary bandits or troublemakers, rapists – those who disturb security, disturb the peace. “- said the PiS president. “This can be seen throughout the European Union,” he pointed out.

In his speech lasting over 40 minutes, Kaczyński also spoke about the difficult years of political transformation. He mentioned unemployment, poverty, low wages, and going abroad to earn a living. He further referred to the decline in the country’s population.

Comparing the demographic situation of Poland and Spain clearly clashes with Kaczyński’s statements about immigrants. It is people born outside Spain who have fueled the country’s population growth in recent years. Kaczyński is wrong when he claims that the population of Poland and Spain in 2004 was comparable or even identical. The available data also do not confirm his thesis that “more Poles come back than leave.”

According to data Spanish National Institute of Statistics, in 2023 the population of Spain exceeded 48 million. This is the highest number in the history of this country. Spain’s population grew rapidly in the first decade of the 21st century. In 2002, there were 41.4 million Spaniards, in 2004 42.9 million – that is, 3.9 million more than President Kaczyński believes. In 2006, 44.4 million people lived in Spain, in 2008 – 46 million, in 2010 – 46.6 million. In the next decade, the population continued to grow, but at a slower pace. In 2015, there were 46.5 million Spaniards, in 2020 – 47.3 million. According to the latest data from July this year, there are already 48.3 million Spaniards.

In Poland it was completely different. At the beginning of the 21st century, the population remained at a similar level – 38.1-38.2 million inhabitants. In 2004, when we were entering the European Union, the country’s population was 38.2 million inhabitants, i.e. 800,000 more than less than President Kaczyński thinks. Let us recall that, according to Spanish estimates, the population of this country in 2004 was 42.9 million inhabitants, so it was approximately 4.7 million larger than the population of Poland. In 2010, we recorded a significant increase to 38.5 million inhabitants, and in 2015 a slight decrease to 38.4 million, and this value remained until 2019. Since 2020, we have recorded significant declines in the number of Polish inhabitants. In 2020, there were 38.1 million Poles, in 2021 – 37.9 million, in 2022 – 37.8 million, and according to the latest data from June this year – 37.7 million.

The National Institute of Statistics also provides similar data broken down into people born in Spain and abroad. Reading them leaves no doubt – immigrants are responsible for the impressive population growth in recent years.

The number of people born in Spain in the first decade of the 21st century has consistently increased year by year. However, in 2012 it lost its momentum. Since 2014, every year there have been fewer and fewer people born in this country. In 2002, there were 38.8 million people born in Spain and 2.7 million born outside this country. In the following years, the number of immigrant people grew with great dynamics. In 2004 it was 3.8 million people, in 2006 – 4.9 million, in 2008 – 6.1 million, and in 2010 – 6.3 million. In the following years, the share of the immigrant population was decreasing, but since 2017 it has been increasing again. In 2020, it was 7.1 million people. According to data from May this year the number of Spanish residents born outside the country is already 8.3 million.

According to data from January 2021, the most Spaniards born outside the country came from South America – 2.5 million, from Europe – 2.2 million and from Africa – 1.3 million. By country – most were born in Morocco – 930 thousand, Romania – 566 thousand, Colombia – 532 thousand.

Service in January this year Forsal.pl he cited the forecasts of the National Institute of Statistics, according to which, by 2037, every fourth resident of Spain will come from abroad. According to Forsal.pl analysis, many European governments have tried to reverse this process by encouraging children through parenting support programs, but to no avail. At the same time, blocking the inflow of immigrants has a negative impact on the economy, which needs workers.

Other data are available for Poland, but they may help in understanding Poland’s different demographic situation. Preliminary results of the 2021 census showed that 97.9 percent permanent residents of our country indicated Poland as their country of birth, while 2.0 percent was born outside its current borders. In the 2011 census, 98.2% of people declared themselves born in Poland. inhabitants, outside the borders – 1.8 percent

Let us remember that in Busko-Zdrój, Jarosław Kaczyński also argued that Poland’s population is 38 million “barely, barely”. “It was barely possible thanks to the returns. Because today, during our rule, people have already started to return. More come back than leave. But only because.” PiS politicians have been repeating similar statements for months. As we have already written in Konkret24, they are unjustified. The indicator on the basis of which the scale of migration can be estimated is the number of Poles who deregistered their permanent residence in Poland in a given year, provided by the Central Statistical Office.

In the first two full years of the United Right government – i.e. in 2016 and 2017 – the number of Poles returning permanently was at a similar level – respectively 9,916 (11,918 left) and 9 801 (11,821) people left. The next year it increased – in 2018 it’s back 10,636 (11,789 left). In 2019, there were many who returned to Poland permanently 11,858 (10,636 emigrated). And it was the first year of the ZP government when we had a positive migration balance, which means that the number of those who reemigrated was 1 222 persons higher from the number of those who left Poland permanently. In previous years, a negative migration balance was recorded – the number of Poles who came to Poland permanently was lower on the number of emigrants – in 2016 o 2 002 people, in 2017 o 2020in 2018 – o 1,153.

We can also talk about a positive migration balance in 2020, but it was small – o 251 more people returned to Poland permanently than left it.

In the following years, we see a reverse trend. The number of those leaving Poland is growing significantly, while the number of Poles returning to the country is decreasing. In 2021, he will come to Poland permanently 9,835 arriveda 11,935 left people, so the balance was negative and carried it away -2,100 people. A year later it returned to Poland permanently 9,649 citizens, 13,514 left people. Negative the migration balance has increased and amounted to -3,866.

After summing up the above data, we can conclude that in the years 2016-2022 to Poland 70,663 re-emigrated our citizens, a 80,331 leftthe migration balance for this period was negative and amounted to -9,668.

Politicians also like to repeat information about supposedly “mass” returns from emigration. However, the available data do not confirm this. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at an election rally in Kraśnik on September 25 that “Poles are returning from emigration en masse for the first time in two hundred years.” If the Prime Minister’s claim were true, it would mean that at least two million people should return to the country under PiS rule. There is no such data, which would confirm Morawiecki’s thesis.