Israel eliminated the entire military leadership of Hezbollah. This is de facto a full-scale war, says Middle East analyst Jarosław Kociszewski, commenting on the death of the leader of the Lebanese terrorist group Hasan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike. He adds that Israel now has the initiative and dictates the development of events and their pace. – Hezbollah's reaction remains unknown, says the expert.
– Israel will not wait for Hezbollah's reaction, but will do its own thing. He uses his initiative and advantage to achieve his goal. And this goal is to dismantle the military structures of Hezbollah – emphasizes Jarosław Kociszewski, a political scientist from the Stratpoints foundation and editor-in-chief of the “Nowa Europa Wschodnia” magazine.
On Saturday, Israel announced the killing of a Hezbollah leader in an airstrike on Beirut on Friday. The Shiite group confirmed the death of its leader, announcing “continuing the fight against Israel.”
A woman holds a photo of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli attack PAP/EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
– The Israelis carried out the decapitation of Hezbollah, and in recent days, every single one of the members of the military leadership of this organization died – notes Kociszewski. As he predicts, Israel will now “liquidate its subsequent layers.”
When asked about a possible land offensive of the Israeli armed forces, the analyst replies that the Israelis are ready for it and if such a decision is made it will be a matter of a few hours. – Although, on the other hand, it is also known that it is easier to get in than to get out – he adds.
Hezbollah's revenge?
– Hezbollah's reaction remains unknown – he emphasizes. – At the moment he is not responding in a significant and organized way. Firing Israel using 200-300 rockets is not a large number compared to previous estimates that Hezbollah is capable of firing several thousand missiles a day. However, this is not happening, he notes.
As he says, two explanations are possible. – The first is that Hezbollah has been hit so severely that it is unable to respond with organized, large-scale attacks. The second is that Hezbollah is waiting for something, but in this situation it is difficult to understand what, since it is receiving such fundamental blows – says Kociszewski.
– We are in a dynamic moment when this war is heating up, so we can only ask more questions. One of them is: whether and how quickly Hezbollah is able to rebuild its structures and chain of command in order to respond militarily. The next question concerns Iranwho found himself in a very difficult situation. Its most important proxy (intermediary – PAP) is being crushed to pieces – says the expert, recalling that “Iran's security was based on a network of (…) intermediaries in the region, and Hezbollah is the most important of them.”
– Are the Iranians able to stop this process, are they able to do something to control the collapse of Hezbollah? We don't know that, he points out.
Explosions in Beirut after Israeli attackReuters
“This is already a de facto full-scale war”
However, currently “the key thing is not what Iran or Hezbollah will do, but what Israel is heading towards, because it now has total advantage and total initiative.” – (Israelis) are currently “rolling out” a great military force (i.e. Hezbollah – ed.), which is more powerful than many NATO countries. This is de facto a full-scale war, says the analyst.
He adds that from Israel's point of view, the fundamental goal is to “regain control over its northern border.”
– The idea is to allow tens of thousands of internally displaced persons to return to their homes. For this purpose, Israel wants to destroy and weaken Hezbollah so much that for as long as possible – and preferably never – Hezbollah will not be able to threaten the north of Israel, says Kociszewski.
Israel's conflict with Hezbollah
On Friday evening, Israeli air forces carried out an attack on Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut. Among the Hezbollah leadership, apart from Nasrallah, other senior commanders of the Shiite terrorist group were also killed.
Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas last fall, it has controlled the south Lebanon Hezbollah is shelling the north of Israel, which is met with strong counterattacks. The group declares that it shows solidarity with Hamas and will stop firing if a truce is concluded in the Gaza Strip.
Smoke from Israel's overnight attacks on BeirutEPA/WAEL HAMZEH
Since Monday, Israel has been carrying out massive airstrikes on Lebanon, emphasizing that the aim of the operation is to destroy the infrastructure and arsenal of Hezbollah, which threatens the north of the country, from which about 60,000 civilians had to be evacuated. More than 700 people have been killed in Israeli attacks so far.
Both Hezbollah and Hamas are considered part of the so-called axis of resistance – an informal coalition led by Iran and targeting Israel, which also includes Yemenis Houthi rebelsShiite militias in Iraq and pro-government armed groups in Syria.
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH