Unpredictable Donald Trump: – Within three days, Donald Trump was able to cause huge turbulence on the market – says Piotr Kuczyński, an analyst at Xelion, in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl. A few days ago, the Washington Post reported that Donald Trump was considering plans to limit tariffs to a selected set of goods and services, which the president-elect himself denied. He later called for the absorption of Canada and did not rule out the use of military force to take over the Panama Canal and Greenland. The next day, CNN revealed that he was considering it introduction of a “national state of emergency in the economy”.
Trump doesn't give up on the idea of tariffs: – Nobody knows what it means. We don't know what to eat it with, notes Piotr Kuczyński. American media point to the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, which allows the president to manage imports during a state of emergency. In this way, Donald Trump may want to find a legal justification for imposing tariffs. For now, however, there are no arguments that would justify the introduction of this “state of emergency”.
The dollar exchange rate is going crazy: In parallel to Donald Trump's increasingly shocking announcements, the American ratings are rising dollar. On Thursday (January 9) strengthens against the Polish zloty by 0.26%.. and you have to pay PLN 4.15 for it. To euro the American currency is gaining by 0.17%. Pair rate USD/EUR is at 0.97.
The dollar is rising: – The dollar is strengthening for various reasons, but one of them is that investors have become accustomed to the fact that when there is a threat, even from the United States, the solution is to escape to the largest currency, i.e. to the dollar – explains Piotr Kuczyński. He mentions that the American currency was also influenced by, among others, growth prices paid and available jobs. In addition, hopes for a reduction in interest rates in the United States fade away for the second half of the year. – A moment of anxiety and surprising macroeconomic data led to the strengthening of the dollar – notes a Xelion analyst.
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States: This day may also be a turning point for the dollar exchange rate. – If Trump continues his rhetoric and turns it into action, I expect a reversal of direction. For now, it's assumed that when he sits in the Oval Office [w Białym Domu – red.]then he will change his rhetoric and will no longer make such statements – says Piotr Kuczyński. – But I'm afraid that Donald Trump really believed that he was the czar of the universe. He won the election in great style. He controls the House of Representatives and the Senate. In addition, it has an “evil spirit” in the form of Elon Musk. I would love to be disappointed, but I'm not optimistic. This could be a crazy year, the analyst adds.
Read also: “Greenland is a tasty morsel for Trump. The island is a real treasure mine“.
Sources: : Stooq.pl, Washington Post, Next.gazeta.pl