Will Trump lose a certain state? A surprise in a renowned poll

According to a study published on Saturday Kamala Harris wins in rural Iowa with Donald Trump by a ratio of 47 to 44 percent. This is a significant change compared to the last similar one survey in September, when the Republican won 47 to 43 percent.

As the Des Moines Register commented, a Harris victory in Iowa would be “a shocker after Iowa turned aggressively to the right in the last election.” The newspaper added that the main factor favoring the incumbent vice president USA is the support of politically independent women, among whom Harris leads by 28 percentage points.

Ann Selzer's poll in Iowa is traditionally considered one of the important indicators of trends before the election. In 2020, the poll was off by two points to Trump's disadvantage, but it suggested a tighter result than most other polls showed.

– It's hard to say that anyone predicted this. Harris has clearly taken the lead, said the head of the poll, J. Ann Selzer.

Iowa – an agricultural state inhabited by 85%. by white residents – until recently it was considered one of the “swing” states of the Midwest. He won there twice with a significant advantage Barack Obama. However, in the subsequent presidential and parliamentary elections, the state's electorate turned decisively to the right. In 2016 and 2020, Trump won there by 10 and 8 percentage points, respectively.

Another poll from Iowa conducted by Emerson College, published on Saturday, showed a similarly significant victory for Trump – 53-43%. The same survey on the eve of the 2020 election showed only a two-point lead for Trump over Biden.

There are six electoral votes up for grabs in Iowa.