Will winter be cold? Weather for winter 2024/2025. IMWM long-term forecast

“Long-term forecast for January-April 2025 with mostly warm months. Are you surprised?” – writes the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management on social media.

According to meteorologists In January, almost all of Poland will have an average monthly temperature above normal multi-annual period from 1991-2020. The situation will be different in the southern and western regions, where thermometers should show average values.

Over most of the country, rainfall totals will most likely be as usual, with more rainfall expected only in northern Poland.

In February, the temperature may exceed the norm in recent years throughout the country. The precipitation forecast is identical. Monthly rainfall is expected to be above normal in all places.

As for temperature, the temperature in March is also expected to be higher than the norm from 1991-2020. The average rainfall should not deviate from the norm.

The long-term forecast shows that in April the weather will be typical for this period. Throughout the country, both the average monthly air temperature and the monthly rainfall are expected to be within the long-term norm.

At IMWM-PIB, as in other meteorological centers around the world, the average monthly temperature or rainfall total for a given month is forecast in relation to the so-called long-term norm. Currently, the period 1991-2020 is recognized.

The average monthly temperature or monthly rainfall values ​​for this period are sorted from lowest to highest. The 10 lowest values ​​are considered “below normal” for temperature or precipitation, the middle 10 are “normal” and the 10 highest are “above normal.”

In the case of the “above normal” class, we can assume that the month will be warmer or wetter than at least several dozen of the same months observed in 1991-2020. If “below normal” is defined, the month will be colder or drier, while “normal” will be similar to the 10-month averages of the comparison period.

Experts from IMWM remind that the forecast average temperature refers to the average temperature of the entire month, recorded both during the day and at night. The forecast rainfall refers to the sum of rainfall from all days in the month. The type of precipitation (snow or rain, etc.) is not specified in the forecasts.

IMG adds that despite the increasing computing power of supercomputers and extensive knowledge of weather processes, it is still impossible to avoid errors and differences in forecasts for such a long period in the future. The discrepancies result both from the risk of sudden (often local) meteorological phenomena that may disturb the forecast weather processes, and from the sheer diversity of physical assumptions and mathematical and statistical equations used in forecasting models.

It is impossible to describe the expected weather more precisely so far in advance, meteorologists point out. It should be remembered that the forecast is indicative and experimental in nature, and that it concerns the average course for the entire forecast region and a given forecast period – they add.