Refueling your car while going on a winter holiday will be cheaper than last year – said Refleks analysts. However, in their opinion, increases in oil prices on global markets may mean price increases at gas stations. In turn, according to the e-petrol.pl portal, further fuel price reductions are less likely next week.
“Next week, which will also be the first week of the winter holidays, fuel prices should remain mostly stable. Winter holiday trips in terms of refueling costs will be cheaper than last year, although diesel owners will benefit the most,” said Refleks analysts.
“Although diesel oil is still more expensive than 95 petrol, at the same time its prices dropped by PLN 1.23/l during the year. Pb95 petrol is cheaper by 31 gr/l, Pb98 petrol by 53 gr/l, and LPG by 24 gr/ “l” – they added. On Friday, average prices at stations were as follows: unleaded petrol PLN 95 – PLN 6.24/l (-2 gr/l during the week), unleaded petrol PLN 98 – PLN 6.78/l (-4 gr/l), oil diesel – PLN 6.40/l (-2 gr/l), autogas – PLN 2.89/l (-2 gr/l).
Winter holidays and refueling at gas stations
Refleks experts pointed out that the changes are becoming smaller and smaller fuel prices at gas stations last week and the observed increase in oil prices at the end of the week may mean the end of discounts. “Since mid-November, every week we have informed about the drop in prices at stations of all available fuels. The reductions were not stopped by the higher fuel surcharge rates in force from January 1,” they recalled.
“In the period between January 15 and 21, 2024, we expect that 98-octane gasoline will cost PLN 6.75-6.87/l. Minor changes will also apply to 95-octane gasoline, which will be in the range of 6.19 -6.31 PLN/l,” experts informed the e-petrol portal.
They added that when it comes to diesel oil, they expect retail prices to remain within the range of PLN 6.39-6.51/l. “In the case of autogas, the price will probably be in the range of PLN 2.85-2.91/l,” they said.
They pointed out that this week, prices of all types of fuels were once again falling on the Polish market. “Next week, however, a continuation of the sell-off is less likely,” they said.
Experts pointed out that the last few hours have been a time of “dynamic” intensification of military actions against Yemen’s Houthis. “The situation in the Red Sea is also escalating – and concerns about the impact of these events on the transit of oil are already visible in the price of the raw material. For now, however, it is too early to suggest that they will significantly increase prices at Polish gas stations,” analysts said.
They noted that wholesale prices of most fuels increased compared to last weekend. “The downward change compared to Saturday concerns only gasoline, which has become slightly cheaper and costs PLN 4,763/m3. Its 98-octane variety is valued at PLN 5,000/m3, which is PLN 36 more expensive than last weekend,” they reported. analysts. They added that the price of diesel increased by PLN 28 at the same time, and its average price is PLN 5,048/m3. Heating oil is also valued PLN 41 higher, with an average price of PLN 4,127/m3.
Refleks’ comment noted that if the increase in oil and fuel prices on the ARA market, which we observe in response to the airstrikes (from USA and their allies) on targets Houthi rebels in Yemen, in retaliation for attacks on ships in the Red Sea, will continue, the series of price reductions at gas stations will come to an end. “Prices at pumps do not have to increase from the beginning of the week, and increases – if they occur – will depend on the scale and pace of possible increases on the wholesale market,” analysts said.
“Disturbing reports coming from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf region are driving the increase in prices on the oil market and before the weekend, Brent crude oil prices approached the level of USD 80, effectively making up for the losses from the beginning of the week,” e-petrol.pl analysts noted.
In their opinion, Monday’s session did not indicate that oil could end the week on a positive note. “Following the information about Saudi Aramco’s February reduction in commodity prices, the commodity prices on the London Stock Exchange lost more than two dollars, falling to the region of $76.” – analysts pointed out, adding that in the following days, further reports coming from the Middle East provided increasingly solid support for expensive oil.
“Attempted attacks by the Yemeni Houthi on ships in the Red Sea, escalation of tension on the Israeli-Lebanese border and finally airstrikes by the international coalition with the participation of the United States and Great Britain on targets in northern Yemen result in an increase in the risk premium on the oil market and on Friday morning for a barrel of oil Brent buyers were already paying over $80. – they concluded.
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