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Winter weather, long-term weather. IMWM forecast for December 2021, January 2022, February 2022 and March 2022

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IMGW has issued an experimental, long-term weather forecast for the coming months. Check what weather forecasts forecast for December 2021 and January, February and March 2022.

The synoptics of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management updated their experimental weather forecast for December, January and February. They also released their predictions for March 2022. We wrote about the first version of our forecasts a few weeks ago.

Weather in December 2021 – IMGW long-term forecast

December is the first month of winter – both astronomical, calendar and meteorological. As forecast by the synoptics of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, in December the average monthly air temperature in Poland may be within the range of the long-term norm from 1991-2020.

As the weather forecasters point out, the norm of average air temperature from 1991-2020 for November is warmer than the previous norm from 1981-2010. The lower limit of the norm for the cities presented in the forecast is on average higher by 0.6 degrees Celsius, and the upper limit by 0.8 degrees C.

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In the case of the monthly sum of atmospheric precipitation in Poland, they forecast precipitation exceeding the long-term standard.

>>> Continue reading: When will the first snow fall?

Forecast of the average monthly air temperature and monthly sum of atmospheric precipitation for December 2021 for selected cities in PolandIMGW

The standard of the average air temperature and total precipitation for December 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland with the forecast for December 2021.IMGW

Weather in January 2021 – IMWM long-term forecast

According to the experimental forecast of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in terms of the average monthly air temperature, January will bring us mostly temperatures close to the long-term norm from 1991-2020. As they indicate, in the south of Poland the average temperature will be lower than the long-term norm.

As the synoptics added, in this case the norm of average air temperature from 1991-2020 is warmer than the previous norm from 1981-2010. The lower limit of the norm for the cities presented in the forecast is on average 0.4 degrees higher, and the upper limit by 0.3 degrees C.

In turn, the monthly rainfall in most of Poland will be more than the average. Only in the south will the rainfall be normal.

Forecast of the average monthly air temperature and the monthly sum of atmospheric precipitation for January 2022 for selected cities in Poland

The standard of the average air temperature and total precipitation for December 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland with the forecast for January 2022.IMGW

Weather in February 2021 – IMWM long-term forecast

In February 2022, the average monthly air temperature will most likely remain within the long-term norm from 1991-2020.

It is worth mentioning here that, according to weather forecasters, the norm of average air temperature from 1991-2020 for January is warmer than the previous norm from 1981-2010. The lower limit of the norm for the cities presented in the forecast is on average higher by 0.4 degrees C, and the upper limit by 0.8 degrees C.

Precipitation forecasts indicate that February 2022 will be wetter in most of the country. Only in the south-east will the amount of rainfall be normal.

Forecast of the average monthly air temperature and monthly sum of atmospheric precipitation for February 2022 for selected cities in Poland

The standard of the average air temperature and total precipitation for December 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland with the forecast for February 2022.IMGW

Weather in March 2021 – IMWM long-term forecast

IMGW weather forecasters forecast that March 2022 will bring us a temperature lower than the long-term norm from 1991-2020 throughout the country.

IMGW emphasizes that the standard of average air temperature from 1991-2020 for March is warmer than the previous standard from 1981-2010. The lower limit of the norm for the cities presented in the forecast is on average higher by 0.6 degrees C, and the upper limit by 0.4 degrees C.

In the case of rainfall – all over Poland, their amount will be close to the norm.

Forecast of the average monthly air temperature and monthly sum of atmospheric precipitation for March 2022 for selected cities in Poland

The standard of the average air temperature and total precipitation for December 1991-2020 for selected cities in Poland with the forecast for March 2022.IMGW

What do the terms “above normal”, “below normal” and “within normal” mean?

According to the synoptics, at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, as well as in other meteorological centers around the world, the average monthly air temperature and the monthly sum of precipitation for a given month are forecast in relation to the long-term standard adopted for the period 1991-2020. The values ​​of the average monthly temperature or monthly sum of precipitation for this 30-year period are sorted from the lowest to the highest. The 10 lowest values ​​indicate the average temperature or the sum of rainfall in the “below normal” class, the middle 10 “normal”, and the highest 10 “above normal” – the experts explain.

When the average temperature or rainfall total is predicted by IMWM:

– above normal – it can be assumed that the forecasted month will be warmer or wetter than at least 20 observed, same months in 1991-2020;

– below normal – it can be assumed that the forecasted month will be cooler / drier than at least 20 observed, same months in 1991-2020;

– normal – it can be assumed that the forecasted month will be similar to the typical 10 observed, same months in 1991-2020.

How to interpret the terms “above normal” and “below normal” in forecasts?

As the Institute explains, if the values ​​of the forecasted temperature are “above the norm”, it does not mean that there will be days when the maximum temperature will be, for example, over 10 degrees Celsius, and the forecast with an average “below normal” minimum temperature below -10 degrees Celsius. At the same time, the forecast of the average temperature “below normal” does not exclude the occurrence of days with the maximum temperature above 10 degrees C, and the forecast of “above normal” days with the minimum temperature below -10 degrees Celsius.

“It should be remembered that the forecasted average temperature refers to the average temperature for the entire month, to the temperature recorded both during the day and at night. The forecast of the total precipitation” above normal “does not mean that there will be heavy rain or snowfall, at the same time the forecast” below the norm “does not reject the possibility of such phenomena. The forecasted total precipitation refers to the sum of precipitation from all days of the month. The forecasts do not specify the type of precipitation (snow or rain)” – writes IMGW.

Main photo source: Shutterstock / IMGW



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