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Yevgeny Prigozhin. Kirill Rogov: The Wagnerian rebellion resembled the armed uprisings in Africa

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The independent Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov, currently in exile, assessed that the June rebellion of the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, against the Kremlin is a typical armed uprising known from African countries, in which the dissatisfied part of the military moves towards the capital, thus communicating with authorities to seek some advantage for themselves.

“Prigozhin did not carry out his activities in Africa for a long time. His rebellion was similar to the (armed riots) regularly launched by commanders from African countries. These rebellions are not aimed at overthrowing the government or changing the model of power. Usually, some of the military are dissatisfied with their situation in the army and the political system. By moving towards the capital and threatening the lives of civilians, they communicate with the leaders in this way and seek some benefit for themselves,” Rogov told the opposition Russian Telegram channel Maybe Objasnit.

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“The main base of the Wagnerians is in the Central African Republic, and this country is a ‘champion’ in terms of armed uprisings in the last 20 years,” added the political scientist, emphasizing that Prigozhin “had no intention of overthrowing Putin’s power or changing the regime.”

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“In Africa, both the army and society understand that they are dealing with a weak state”

According to the expert, the most important long-term effect of the Wagnerian rebellion may be the strengthening of the belief in Russian society that the invasion of Ukrainewhile not belonging to the “liberal-dissident” environment.

“In Africa, both the army and society understand that they are dealing with a weak state. Therefore, the reaction there is different. Russia both citizens and representatives of the elite believed that the state was strong, but it turned out to be weak. This caused a shock. In addition, the society heard from Prigozhin a new rhetoric – anti-war, but not liberal and (…) not assuming a break with the regime. This will have significant consequences,” predicts Rogow.

Yevgeny PrigozhinPAP/Newscom

Wagnerian revolt in Russia

On June 24, the mercenaries of the Wagner Group seized the headquarters of the Russian army in Rostov-on-Don, and then began to advance towards Moscow. The head of the mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, long at odds with the part of the Russian military establishment leading the invasion of Ukraine, demanded “restore justice” in the army and remove the defense minister from power Sergey Shoigu.

That same evening, Prigozhin announced a retreat and the withdrawal of the mercenaries to the field camps to “avoid bloodshed”. This was supposed to be the result of a deal between the Belarusian authoritarian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenko and Prigozhin, concluded in an agreement with Vladimir Putin. According to these arrangements, the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and Prigozhin himself would move to Belarus.

Main photo source: PAP/Newscom

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