The leader of Poland’s Law and Justice party (PiS) may be willing to sacrifice his chances of winning the 2027 elections in order to limit the electoral success of far-right politician Grzegorz Braun, according to a political scientist who claims to have heard this from sources close to the party.
Professor Sławomir Sowiński from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University told Polsat News that he had learned from people in PiS circles that for Jarosław Kaczyński, curbing Braun’s electoral prospects matters more than regaining power in the next parliamentary elections.
“I heard somewhere in the PiS orbit that, fundamentally, for Jarosław Kaczyński it is more important to limit Grzegorz Braun’s electoral chances than even to seize power in 2027,” Professor Sowiński said during an interview on the channel’s main political programme.
PiS’s strategic shift to compete with Braun
The academic argued that Braun and his movement represent “a serious political problem”, comparing him to the late Andrzej Lepper, a populist politician who rose to prominence in the 1990s on an anti-establishment wave.
According to Professor Sowiński, two recent events fuelled Braun’s rise: the war in Ukraine and subsequent war fatigue, and more significantly, the COVID-19 pandemic. “That was a deep shock for at least some of us – a collapse of faith in science,” he explained. The pandemic restrictions represented “a shock in which the state suddenly limited our freedom,” he added.
Braun draws from the most radical segment of PiS’s electorate, the expert noted, and Kaczyński is fully aware of this threat. This understanding, Sowiński believes, explains why the PiS leader chose the hardline Przemysław Czarnek rather than the more moderate Mateusz Morawiecki as the party’s candidate for prime minister.
“PiS is aware of the danger that Grzegorz Braun poses to Polish politics, and you can see that in the party’s actions today,” Professor Sowiński stressed.
Who can stop Braun?
The political scientist suggested that PiS is prepared to do “almost everything” to create “a space and language” within the party that could also appeal to Braun’s voters. He identified only two political forces with the tools to counter Braun’s advance.
“If we think about who can stop Grzegorz Braun, it is above all Jarosław Kaczyński, and to some extent also Krzysztof Bosak,” he said, referring to the leader of Konfederacja, the broader far-right coalition. “PiS together with Konfederacja are the only two parties that have any real tools to push Grzegorz Braun below the electoral threshold or limit his representation in the Sejm.”
Professor Sowiński noted that both Konfederacja and PiS “still have the instruments to pull voters of the Crown of Poland Confederation to their side”. Braun’s Crown of Poland Confederation (Konfederacja Korony Polskiej) is a splinter movement that has broken away from the wider Konfederacja alliance.
By contrast, the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska), the main liberal opposition grouping currently in government, “has no room to attract Braun’s voters”, the expert concluded.
What this means for Poles in the UK
For Poles in Britain following domestic politics from abroad, this analysis reveals the growing influence of the radical right in Poland’s political landscape. Braun, who was stripped of his European Parliament immunity earlier this year, represents a strain of politics rooted in anti-establishment sentiment, scepticism towards COVID-19 measures, and opposition to support for Ukraine.
If Professor Sowiński’s assessment is correct and PiS is indeed prioritising the containment of Braun over electoral victory, it suggests the party fears a fundamental realignment on the Polish right. This could have long-term implications for Poland’s foreign policy, its stance on European integration, and domestic social policies – all of which affect Poles living abroad, from passport and consular services to voting rights and dual citizenship rules.
Poles registered to vote from the UK should monitor how the right-wing political landscape evolves ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections, as the outcome will shape Poland’s direction on issues directly affecting the diaspora, including relations with the EU and access to public services when visiting or returning to Poland.
