Productivity in Poland. New data

EY has analyzed productivity calculated as GDP for a worked hour between 2015 and 2024. Analysts leaned in more detail over the period between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2024.

As they pointed out in a press release, despite the initial decline during the pandemic period, productivity in our country in 2019-2024 increased by 9.6 percent. In this respect, we are “much better” than USA or Western European countries – they assessed. At the same time, in the United States, productivity increased by 7.3 percent, in Germany by 0.7 percent, in Great Britain by 2 %, and France fell by 1.5 percent – according to the analysis.

The fastest GDP growth for the worked time analysts observed on Malta (18.7 percent) and on Slovakia (12.3 percent). An increase in productivity in Poland can largely be attributed to the convergence process or more commonly “chasing Western Europe” – the analysts pointed out. They emphasized that the capital resource after the political change was low with us compared to countries like Germany or France, and the efficiency with which we work began to grow dynamically, including thanks to the possibility of using Western technologies. They added that all of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced the “most pronounced” TFP (Total Factor Productivity) in Europe, Africa and Central Asia (EMEA), maintaining good results even in the face of slowing down after the global financial crisis. – We see similar mechanisms in other countries of the region, which is why in recent years the greatest increase in productivity can be observed, among others LithuaniaSlovakia or in Bulgariawhile the French, Germans or Italians are struggling with stagnation and declines – Marek Zrólut, head of the Economic Analysis Team and the Chief Ey economist for Europe and Central Asia, pointed out in the communiqué. The most dynamic increase in productivity in 2019-2024 in Poland, analysts recorded in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector (37.1 percent, compared to 9.1 percent in 2015-19), which in their opinion results from a decrease in the number of small farms. According to the analysis, productivity on the real estate market also increased (39.8 percent in 2015-19 and 35 percent in 2019-24), in industrial processing (11 percent in 2015-19 and 12 percent in 2019-24), as well as in construction (decrease in productivity by 12.5 percent in 2015-19 and an increase of 13.8 % in 2019-24). – In sectoral terms, the increase in productivity is wide and covers almost all industries analyzed. Although the rate of this growth is varied, we do not observe a situation in which one sector is responsible for most of the total increase in productivity – emphasized Maciej Stefański, a senior economist from the EY Economic Analysis Team. The highest slowdown was recorded by the entertainment industry, which was the only one who recorded a 16 % decrease in productivity. In the period 2019-24, which according to analysts is the result of a pandemic. According to the study, the slowdown was also recorded in trade, transport, accommodation and gastronomic services (15.9 percent in 2015-19 and 10.5 percent in 2019-24), public services (from 8.8 percent to 6.1 percent), finances (from 46.3 percent to 4.4 %), in ICT industries, i.e. Information and Information Communication Technology (from 17.3 percent to 1.7) and in professional services (from 18.5 percent to 1.3 percent). – ICT is one of the more dynamically developing industries in our country. However, the decrease in the rate of productivity may indicate that this growth is increasingly extensive, by employing new people who may not be as productive as existing employees, and not by increasing the work efficiency of the current staff. Productivity reducing factors may include problems with finding the right specialists and switching to remote work and hybrid or overtime reduction – said Maciej Stefański.

EY forecasts an increase in productivity in Poland for another 3.5 years. As the roar pointed out, the increase at this time will be similar or slightly faster than that of the last 4.5 years, which means “slight acceleration” in an annual basis. The impact on this process, according to EY analysts, will have further accumulation of capital, continuation of convergence, improvement of the cyclical position of our country, i.e. the state of the economy in relation to its production potential, as well as “limited” generative artificial intelligence (Genai) to a limited extent. EY estimates assume that AI is to raise Total Factor Productivity within 10 years by 0.9 percent. in Western Europe, 0.6 percent in South Europe, 0.4 percent in the Mena region (Middle East and South Africa), 0.3 percent in Central and Eastern Europe and 0.05 percent in Sub -Saharan Africa. “In the case of faster Genai adoption, these values ​​can even be doubled relative to the base scenario,” the analysts emphasized. EY provides audit services, tax, business, strategic and transaction consulting.