Poland’s state energy company Orlen has signalled that household gas prices may rise next year as European benchmark contracts climb amid concerns over low stockpiles ahead of the winter heating season, according to RMF24 — Ekonomia.
Benchmark gas futures in Amsterdam rose to €74.80 per megawatt hour on Tuesday morning, driven by investor anxiety over inadequate reserves before the cold months. Gas storage facilities across the European Union currently hold 72.4 per cent of capacity, significantly below the five-year average of 87.7 per cent for this period.
The warning comes as European nations scramble to secure additional supplies at a time when global availability remains constrained, leaving energy markets vulnerable to further price increases.
Tariff decision expected by December
Robert Soszyński, vice-president of Orlen, told a parliamentary committee on energy, climate and state assets that the company cannot yet confirm whether it will seek a tariff increase or by how much. MyOrlen, the retail arm, is required by law to agree its annual tariff with URE, Poland’s energy regulator, each year.
“Whether the tariff for next year will ultimately be higher, and by how much, we cannot answer that question at this moment because we are not able to determine that today,” Soszyński said. He added that Orlen would be able to give a precise answer in December or late November, as the process of agreeing the tariff with URE is only just beginning.
However, he delivered a clear warning about the direction prices could take. “If prices over the next three months remain as they are now, or higher, on European markets, then certainly the final application to URE will indicate a price increase,” he stressed.
Supply concerns grip European markets
The tightening gas market reflects broader challenges facing the continent as it seeks to diversify away from Russian supplies while meeting demand. European countries must now compete for liquefied natural gas cargoes on the global market, where supply remains limited despite rising consumption.
Storage levels, which are typically higher at this point in the year as countries prepare for winter demand, have become a key indicator of market stress. The current shortfall compared to the five-year average suggests that Europe entered the autumn with less of a cushion than in previous years, leaving less room for manoeuvre if winter proves particularly cold or supplies are disrupted.
What this means for Poles in Poland
Polish households currently benefit from regulated gas tariffs set by URE, but those rates are adjusted annually based on wholesale market conditions and company costs. If Orlen does apply for a tariff increase later this year, the regulator will review the application and decide whether to approve it in full, in part, or reject it.
Any approved rise would take effect from 1 January 2025 and would be reflected in household bills throughout the year. Poles who heat their homes with gas or use it for cooking should prepare for the possibility of higher energy costs during the winter months.
The final decision will depend heavily on how European gas prices behave between now and December. Consumers can monitor developments by checking URE’s website, where tariff decisions are published, or following announcements from Orlen. Those concerned about rising bills may wish to consider energy-saving measures or review their household budgets ahead of the new year.
