Poland’s Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged for another month, though the governor of the National Bank of Poland has declined to rule out a hike as soon as November if new economic forecasts show inflation risks are rising, according to RMF24 — Ekonomia.
The council decided this week to keep the main reference rate at 3.75 per cent, the deposit rate at 3.25 per cent, the lombard rate at 4.25 per cent, the bill rediscount rate at 3.8 per cent and the discount rate at 3.85 per cent. The rates have remained at these levels since the council’s sole cut this year, a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in March.
Governor keeps door open to rate rise
At a press conference following the decision, NBP governor Adam Glapiński was asked by journalists whether a rate increase could come as early as November. “Yes, although I do not expect it,” he replied, stressing that there are currently no indicators pointing to such a move, but that the situation could shift if the latest economic projections turn out to be alarming.
“As president of the NBP I have all the data on an ongoing basis. For now it does not look like it [a rate hike in November], but I am not pre-judging this,” Glapiński said.
He explained that analysts from the Department of Economic Analysis and Research will study model results and apply expert adjustments before presenting projections for the coming quarters and the medium term. The council will then take a decision based on that work.
Inflation concerns remain top priority
Glapiński emphasised that every member of the Monetary Policy Council is determined not to miss the moment at which inflation might begin to spread across further sectors of the economy and take on a more permanent character.
“After the statements of all members of the Council – I repeat, all – I see complete determination not to miss the moment if inflation were spreading and had a tendency to spread to further sectors and had any lasting character,” the governor said.
He also pointed to another factor that could shape the council’s decisions: whether the government extends the so-called CPN package, which cuts VAT and excise duty on fuel. “Perhaps the government will give some signal on this matter earlier and it will be easier for us to make a decision. This is also the element on which no model, no research, will help us,” Glapiński admitted.
What this means for Poles in Poland
The decision to hold rates for now keeps borrowing costs steady, offering some predictability for households with mortgages and consumer loans linked to the WIBOR benchmark. However, the prospect of a November increase means savers and borrowers alike should prepare for possible changes within weeks.
Anyone considering taking out a mortgage or refinancing should keep a close eye on the central bank’s November meeting. A rate rise would push up monthly repayments on variable-rate loans. On the other hand, savers with zloty deposits may see modestly better returns if rates do climb.
The council’s focus on inflation underlines the importance of watching price trends, particularly if the government decides not to renew fuel tax relief. That could feed into higher living costs across the board. Official projections and the next policy statement will be published on the NBP website following the November meeting, giving clarity on the council’s direction.
