Seven people died, thousands had to leave their homes, and many cannot return. Estimation of losses is ongoing, but it is known that they amount to billions. The effects are much greater in the entire region. Scientists have now answered the question of whether the September flood was related to climate change.
A study conducted by an international team of scientists showed that Climate change was behind such heavy rainfall in Poland and the region. It dumped a huge amount of water over Central Europe. the so-called Genoese than. The analysis showed that such lows were not occurring less often or more often. However, the downpour they brought was stronger and more likely in our warming climate.
“Our study has shown a link between climate change and the torrential rainfall that has flooded central Europe. These floods point to the devastating effects of warming caused by fossil fuels,” said Dr Joyce Kimutai, a climate and environment researcher at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London. “Until oilgas and coal If they are not replaced by renewable energy, storms like Boris will cause even more rainfall, leading to flooding that will destroy the economy, she stressed.
Floods in Poland are stronger due to climate change
According to the study, such a heavy downpour is a very rare event – so rare that it is difficult to find a reference to it in the history of measurements. In less than four days, in some places 300-400 liters of water per square meter (with an annual average of about 600 liters per meter). The downpours had a wide reach, from Slovenia, through Austria and the Czech Republic to Poland and were record-breakingly intense in our part of the world – with greater intensity than those that caused floods in 1997 and 2002.
The analysis showed that such a downpour was at least twice as likely. In today's climate, this is the so-called 100-year rain – occurring on average once every hundred years. It must be remembered that this is a statistical term and does not mean that such a downpour will definitely occur within 100 years, only that its probability in any given year is 1 in 100 (and if not for climate change, it would be 1 in 200). This can be seen from the fact that we had comparably extreme rainfall less than 30 years ago, in 1997. But in today's heated climate, the flood of 1997 would have been even greater.
– Climate tells us that the flood will come sooner or later. And climate change means that this flood will happen sooner rather than later – said Prof. Bogdan Chojnicki from the University of Life Sciences in Poznań, one of the authors of the study.
The study also found that downpours are not only occurring more frequently, but are also more intense. The rainfall that led to this flood was at least 7 percent, and possibly as much as 20 percent, heavier than in a world without climate change. While 7 percent may seem like a small increase, it's important to remember that our infrastructure is designed for past climates and may not withstand more frequent, more severe extremes.
If we heat the Earth by a total of 2 degrees Celsius, which could happen as early as mid-century, the strength and probability of such precipitation will increase (The current level of global warming is about 1.3 degrees.) Then they will be another 4 percent stronger and 50 percent more likely.
The authors of the analysis emphasize that this increase may be underestimated and The actual impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events may be greater in the future.
Modern research
This is the first such analysis concerning Poland. It was conducted by scientists from the international World Weather Attribution team, which uses the most modern research methods to check the impact of climate change on specific weather phenomena. 24 researchers participated in the work on the analysis. How do they check the impact of climate change on extreme weather?
Scientists use historical weather data and climate models. Special computer programs create a “virtual Earth” whose climate has not been changed by humans. This allows you to check what the weather would look like under the same conditions, but without climate change. By comparing this with the actual weather, we can see to what extent global warming has contributed to the heat wave (or other phenomenon).
Climate change is changing the face of the Earth
Central Europe is just one of the regions of the world that has recently been hit by climate change-driven disasters. Floods have claimed a deadly toll in West Africa, Japan, and earlier in Sudan. In the summer, Europe and other parts of the world faced each other with heat waves and drought.
“Crushing droughts in southern Italy. Devastating fires in Portugal. Deadly floods in central Europe. Climate change is wreaking havoc in Europe, but politicians across the continent are trying to backtrack on climate commitments,” said Friederike Otto of Imperial College London, one of the study's authors.
– Climate change is an existential threat, especially for poorer social groups
– she said. She also emphasized that moving away from fossil fuels, the combustion of which fuels climate change, creates many opportunities: new places, cheaper energy from renewable sources, healthier, greener cities or avoiding the risk of more serious disasters in the future.
Scientists ask new questions
The analysis showed that the frequency of Genoese lows has not changed so far, but the strength and probability of such heavy rainfall in our region has increased – and will increase with the progression of climate change.
But that doesn't answer all the questions about these extreme downpours – and the study's authors emphasize that more research is needed.
The role of the increasing heating of the Mediterranean and Black Seas needs to be studied in detail. Increased evaporation could not only add more moisture to the atmosphere, but also change weather patterns. Another aspect to be examined is the behavior of low-pressure weather systems – do they move more slowly, thus dropping more rain in one place?
Costs of climate change
Estimation of the losses caused by the flood in Poland is still ongoing – in some places it will take a long time to clean up, let alone rebuild.
According to the latest government estimates, losses in water infrastructure amount to PLN 3.5 billion, and in centrally managed roads and bridges – PLN 1.5 billion. The costs of repairing roads managed by local governments may be twice as much. There are no estimates of private property losses yet, but the government has announced aid of PLN 23 billion, some of which will be assistance to people whose homes have been damaged.
– These floods show how costly climate change is becoming. Even after days of preparation, floods devastated cities, destroying thousands of homes. Countries must plan how to prepare for unprecedented floods and take climate change into account in spatial planning
– said Maja Vahlberg from the Red Cross Climate Center. Losses may increase because the Odra River is still flooded. On Tuesday, part of the village of Osiecznica near Krosno Odrzańskie was flooded.
The fire department reports that there were 250,000 interventions throughout the summer, many of them related to extreme weather. – This was a disastrous summer, and the next ones may be even worse! I have been on the job for many years and I have never seen anything like this. Currently, the season with high temperatures, strong winds and heavy rainfall has been significantly extended, which means that extreme weather phenomena are becoming more and more severe for all of us and we need to speak out loudly about the fact that they are caused by climate change – said Paweł. Marten from the Wieliszew Volunteer Fire Department.
Security Mix
Scientists estimate that the lower number of victims compared to the 1997 flood or the catastrophic flood in Germany in 2021 (when over 200 people died) shows that the forecast, warning and rescue system worked to a large extent.
The forecasts correctly predicted the catastrophic level of rainfall several days before the flood. However, the fact that despite this, 7 people in Poland and a dozen in other countries died in the flood shows that we still need to improve warning systems and actions in the event of a disaster.
IN Gazeta.pl we have already writtenthat better protection against floods requires a combination of various solutions – based on nature, such as green retention, natural forests and rivers, and when this is not enough – so-called “grey” infrastructure, such as reservoirs, may be necessary.
The authors of the WWA study present similar conclusions. As they write, “green-blue” infrastructure that allows for natural water retention in the landscape (forests, especially mixed species, rain gardens) can absorb some water and limit the effects of heavy rainfall. It is also important to prevent flood areas from being built up. At the same time – the scientists write – in the case of extreme rainfall, such solutions will not be sufficient and a combination of various elements is needed, from solutions based on nature to reservoirs and dams.
They also point out that heavy rain and floods affected many countries at the same time, which shows that it is necessary to coordinate flood strategies between countries.