These are the last moments of the campaign in the US, and polls still indicate that every vote will count in the fight for the White House. According to a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted in seven key states, Donald Trump improved his result in Pennsylvania, where he tied Kamala Harris. However, this one leads in four other states. However, the differences between them are minimal.
This year's presidential campaign in the US is focused on seven key states – they will, in practice, decide the winner of the presidential election. Three of them are industrial “rust belt” states that historically favor Democrats – Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). The remaining states are the southern states of the “sunbelt”, until recently Republican strongholds – North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and the desert states of Arizona (11) and Nevada (6).
Competition between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is extremely fierce, which means that the outcome remains highly uncertain until the very last moments. Meanwhile, the campaign is entering its final moments.
As the New York Times writes, for decades polls did not show such a close presidential race in so many states in both the “sunbelt” and “rust belt.” The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, published on Sunday (the study is considered one of the most reputable in the US), shows a slight advantage for the Democratic Party candidate in four of the seven key states.
This is Nevada, where, according to the survey, Harris wins 49 percent. compared to 46 percent Donald Trump, North Carolina – 48 percent up to 46 percent, Wisconsin – 49 percent. up to 47 percent, Georgia – 48 percent. up to 47 percent
Trump and Harris scored identically in Pennsylvania (48% each) and Michigan (47% each). In Arizona, the Republican Party candidate is in the lead with 49 percent. up to 45 percent
As the Journal notes, in all previous NYT/Siena polls conducted since Harris entered the race, the vice president had a four-point lead in Pennsylvania. Now the result has put the rivals in this region on an equal footing.
However, the NYT notes that “results in all seven states are within the margin of error, meaning neither candidate has a decisive advantage in any of these states.”
Nevertheless, the newspaper points out, “there are signals that people who have only recently decided who to vote for are leaning towards Harris.” According to the American daily, she wins in this group by 55 percent to 44 percent.
Support for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in seven key statesNew York Times/Siena Collage
TVN24 BiS journalist Michał Sznajder, who is in Washington and closely follows the competition for the presidency in the United States, reported on TVN24 that “the last several dozen hours are simply a festival of polls, from which one piece of information emerges – that no one can be certain of victory.”
He also emphasized that the New York Times/Siena College study “is probably the most valued, most reputable poll in the United States.” – He is always very widely quoted – he noted.
– Of course, Pennsylvania is particularly important because of all the swing states, it has the most electoral votes up for grabs there, as many as 19 – he explained. As Sznajder said, experts “actually agree that whoever wins in Pennsylvania can almost rest assured of the presidency.”
Michał Sznajder about election polls in the USATVN24
Some Americans have already voted. Who had more support among them?
It is worth noting that, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, the poll was conducted after over 70 million Americans had voted.
The NYT reports that “about 40 percent of those polled by the New York Times/Siena College in seven states said they had already voted.” Harris wins this group by eight percentage points. Trump has an advantage among voters who say they will vote soon.
The newspaper highlights that early voting rates are particularly high in North Carolina, where more than half of voters said they had already voted. Kamala Harris wins over Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in the group of respondents from this state who have already put their ballot in the ballot box.
Supporters of Kamala Harris at her rally in Atalanta. Georgia, USAPAP/EPA/EDWARD M. PIO RODA
What's more, the Democrat has an advantage over the former president among people who have already voted in almost all key states – except Arizona. There 46 percent of those asked said they had already cast their votes. Of those, 50 percent supported Trump and 46 percent supported Harris.
What topics interest voters
The survey also shows some change in what topics became most important to Americans in the final phase of the campaign.
Economic issues still dominate, but in Wisconsin, for example, the issue of abortion is almost as important. Meanwhile, in Arizona, the importance of migration is increasing as a key topic for voters' decisions.
The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted among a sample of 7,878 declared voters between October 24 and November 2. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 pp in each condition.
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/ERIK S. LESSER