A member of the MPC with a reduction in interest rates: I will urge you to take a step before July

In May, the Monetary Policy Council will test whether there is a majority to lower interest rates. There are two variants at stake – said Przemysław Litwiniuk, a member of the Monetary Policy Council, in the #bezkit program. “I will urge you to take this step before July,” he added. The Minister of Funds and Regional Policy Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz spoke about the consequences of reduction of the health contribution.

The president of the NBP during the Thursday press conference indicated that in the near future there may be the possibility of lowering interest rates. He stipulated, however, that this is not a declaration regarding the start of the cycle interest rate reduction nor a one -time adjustment.

Announcement of the change?

– Listening to the president (NBP Adam) Glapiński, one could get the impression that this was a preview of a change. I think that in May the council will test whether there is a majority to change the parameters of monetary policy. Specifically, lowering the level of interest rates and the scale of this lowering, because there are essentially two variants: 25 base points and 50 base points – said a member of the Monetary Policy Council Przemysław Litwiniuk on TVN24 on TVN24.

He added that the final decision will depend on the incoming data, in particular the data from the labor market, which will be published at the end of April. – If there is no surprise there, if there is no black swan, I think that the decision in May or June is very likely – he assessed.

Litwiniuk was also asked whether a reduction cycle is likely, or whether it would be a one -time reduction in the near future.

– We are in the conditions of many factors of uncertainty, so I would be in favor of a conservative approach. The first step at 0.25 or 0.5 points, but I think I will urge you to take this step before July – he said.

“This is bad news for the real economy, good news for inflation”

Litwiniuk also referred to the data about inflationwhich proved to be worse than that it resulted from the NBP projection. – When assessing the world from the perspective of the National Bank of Poland, this is bad news for the real economy, this is good news for inflation. There has been such information that gives hope that we will approach the goal specified at the level of 2.5 percent year on year with one percentage point of the deviation band at each page – said the guest of TVN24.

– This projection cannot be said that it was prepared improperly, because it was based on the previous model, on the previous GUS inflation basket. The CSO once a year updates the adaptation of this basket, takes into account and changes in the scale of Poles' expenses to individual types of their activities, but also a list of products or goods or services – he explained.

– In the second quarter we will observe a further decrease in the level of inflation. In the third quarter we will find ourselves in the space of the target according to these assumptions, i.e. we will note 3.5 percent. In the fourth quarter, the assumption says that inflation will increase again to 4.2 percent, but it is generally based on the issue of frostbite energy prices he pointed out.

“Limited danger” of American duties

The guest of TVN24, asked about how the new duties would affect the Polish economy, explained that “danger is limited”.

– When it comes to calculations, it is estimated that it can be from 0.35 percent to 0.43 percent of GDP. But it must also be borne in mind that we are a participant in economic exchange between Germany And the United States, which can also be translated to some extent into the activity of our entrepreneurs – he said.

“The most earners will pay more”

She was asked about the consequences of lowering the health premium in the “#bezkit” program of the Minister of Funds and Regional Policy Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz.

– You say this is support for micro -entrepreneurs. However, as we can see after the calculations, they will not gain the most on lowering this premium, but people earning over 50,000 a month. And the people you are talking about, i.e. these florists and all micro-entrepreneurs, will stand in elongated queues due to the fact that we will have a 6 million gap in health care. The Minister of Finance says that it is somehow storing. How and where will this money come from? – Mateusz Olechowski from the Youth Left Youth Association asked.

Pełczyńska-Nałęcz argued that “if the Minister of Finance says that they are intended and secured, it means that they are.” She explained that they would come from various budget revenues. – This is how it was established. It was one of the main elements of coalition consent when it comes to reducing the health premium, “she emphasized, adding that” none of us wants a defect from the health care system “.

“This gap (in health care – ed.) Won't be,” she calmed down.

Pełczyńska-Nałęcz said that at the reduction of health contributions “percentage of those who earn the least” percentage. – So, depending on how much income they have, they gain the most, and those in turn will pay extra – she explained. She added that “the most money will pay more health contributions”.

Minister with a “great budget change”

The minister also referred to the allegations of Law and Justice politicians, according to which the current team pursues the policy of debt of the state.

– Treating the state during his predecessors was not only large, but still closed. It was unprotected somewhere in a non -transparent manner – Riposted Pełczyńska -Nałęcz.

She talked about “a great budget change that happened.” – Different things pushed in an invisible and non -transparent way were revealed in the current budget for 2025, transparently described. There are no hidden debts that were run in this way by the previous government – said the minister.

The health contribution will be lower

On Friday, the Sejm adopted an amendment to the Act on healthcare services financed from public funds, which will reduce the health premium for entrepreneurs.

The amendment was supported by MPs of the Civic Coalition – including the Minister of Health Izabela Leszczyna – and the third road, and the left and together voted against. 166 PiS deputies of 174 voters were also against. She abstained, among others Confederation.

The change will cost PLN 4.6 billion, it will enter into force from the beginning of 2026. According to the Ministry of Finance, about 2.5 million entrepreneurs are to benefit from the reform.

Maria reactor

The last guest of the program was the head of the Nuclear Energy Department of the Ministry of Industry Paweł Gajda. He informed that “very intensive work” is underway to supplement the documentation needed to issue a permission to operate the MARIA research reactor at the National Center for Nuclear Research in Świerk.

He reminded that the previous document expired and – in accordance with applicable regulations – the reactor had to be turned off. – Such a license must be renewed at the State Atomicism Agency every 10 years – he emphasized. He also said that “excluding happily coincided with a technical break and there is a very good chance that to complete it”, i.e. until May 10, the PAA permission and reactor Maria will resume the activity.

The director also informed that from next year the Ministry of Industry has been planning to launch an additional financing mechanism that will provide the reactor with greater financial security. – That a significant part of the costs of the MARIA reactor operating costs would be assured in advance – he explained.

When asked if the extension or construction of a second reactor is planned, Gajda said that the implemented modernization program “should ensure the possibility of the reactor functioning until 2050, but we are also starting to think about building a successor.”

He noted, however, that before the decision is made, it is necessary to assess how much the current modernization is enough. – We want the planned large research program to support the implementation of nuclear energy, there is a fragment regarding the start of work on the new reactor (research – ed.) – he pointed out.

On Thursday, the Minister of Industry Marzena Czarnecka dismissed the director of the National Nuclear Research Center prof. Krzysztof Kurek. She justified her decision with the need to improve the functioning of the NCBJ, and especially the priority treatment of the operation of the Maria reactor.

As explained on Wednesday prof. Kurek, on August 20, 2024, NCBJ submitted to PAA (which acts as nuclear supervision) all required documents to extend Maria's permission to work. “Nuclear supervision is half a year to consider documents, but if he requests additional documents or analyzes, the deadline for consideration may extend” – explained the former head of the NCBJ.

On March 28, Minister Czarnecka gave a lecture for participants of the Silesian University of Technology Business School, during which she referred to reports of withdrawal of the reactor Maria. – This reactor did not receive appropriate consents and permits from the Polish Atomist Agency, but there is a presumption that in mid -May he will get, fulfilling the security conditions – she said.

The Maria nuclear reactor is a research reactor that produces radioisotopes and is used for testing.