A surprising success for the rebels. “These forces can destroy the Syrian army”

No one expected such a turn of events in the Middle East. Tanks of the Syrian government armed forces abandoned on the streets of Aleppo are the result of a successful rebel attack on Syria's second largest city. But the opposition to Bashar al-Asaad's regime can hardly be called pro-democratic.

– The group from which Hayat Tahrir al-Sham comes was created in 2011 and was known for its strong connections with Al-Qaeda – says Col. Cedric Leighton, CNN military analyst.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is widely considered a terrorist organization. In recent years, the group has softened its extremist rhetoric to appeal to a wider range of Syrians. Many of them are afraid of extremists and consider the Assad regime to be a lesser evil. Tahrir al-Sham's successes may encourage other rebels to join the offensive, and there is no shortage of anti-Assad groups in Syria.

– These forces can destroy the Syrian army. Assad's forces are, of course, larger and have better weapons, but this may mean nothing if they do not want to fight, says Cedric Leighton.

Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, which has been going on for 13 years, many actors have appeared and still appear on the scene of that conflict. American soldiers are stationed in the north of the country, the Turks have deployed their own forces on their border, and Iranian advisers are present in Damascus who do not intend to leave and believe that the rebels' successes are only temporary. Assad met with the rest of the Iranian authorities.

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– The presence of Iranian advisers in Syria is nothing new. They were there before and will stay there as long as the Syrian government wishes, says Emsaeil Baghaei, spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Not without significance for the current rebellion is the weakening of Hezbollah, which supports Assad, whose command was decimated in the latest escalation of the conflict with Israel.

– We are constantly monitoring events in Syria. We are determined to defend Israel's interests and achieve our goals in this war, says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Yet another key Assad ally is embroiled in another war. The Syrian dictator was to go to Russia to talk to Putin about support. The Kremlin does not comment on these reports, but Russia's hand was already visible during airstrikes on rebel-controlled Aleppo. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that civilians were killed in airstrikes, including on a hospital.

– As for the Russians, they will help more than Iran. The point is that Tehran's involvement could result in a response from Israel, which would use it as a pretext to attack Iran, comments Dr. HA Hellyer, analyst at the Royal Institute for Security and Defense.

Western countries would turn a blind eye to the fall of the Assad regime. But the cure may turn out to be worse than the disease, because a takeover of power by an extreme Islamist group could further destabilize the country. The United States announced that it is ready to ease sanctions imposed on Assad's government if it cuts itself off from Iran and Hezbollah.

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– The capture of Aleppo is the beginning of a campaign that could lead the rebels to Damascus itself. From this city there is a highway running south, passing through other large cities. The rebels can use it to move on this axis – points out Cedric Leighton.

For now, it is too early to talk about any negotiations in this conflict. Each clash results in civilian casualties, and civilians, encouraged by the rebels' successes, have begun to return to Aleppo after years in exile. The UN and the Syrian opposition are calling for a peaceful solution to the conflict, but there is no indication that Assad, who paid for the defense of his regime with the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, will come to the table for talks. At least as long as he has external support.