The International Monetary Fund has prepared cyclical “World Economic Outlook” report Published on the eve of the Spring Summit of the IMF in Washington. Poland will be represented by the Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański.
The IMF has prepared the following 2025 forecasts:
- Global GDP growth will drop to 2.8 percent. from 3.3 percent estimated in January,
- Forecast United States GDP has been reduced to 1.8 percenti.e. by almost one percentage point,
- In European Union economic growth is to be 1.4 percent,
- growth Polish GDP will 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026,
- inflation The average annual in Poland is expected to be this year 4.3 percent, and unemployment will remain low – about 3 percent
The forecast for Poland was reduced from 3.5 to 3.2 percent. And although it may not sound best, the context is crucial in this case. The economic growth forecast has been reduced for the whole globe, in Germany the economy will stop at last year's level, Austria will write a slowdown, and Growth of Polish GDP by 3.2 percent turns out to be The best result of the entire European Union.
What happens to the Polish economy?
The IMF report appeared in a few days when they are published Data on the Polish economy for March. On Tuesday we got to know data on wages and industry:
- Average remuneration in March increased by 7.7 percent. year to year to the level PLN 9055.92. Although salaries are growing all the time, the braking and salaries have been increasing since February 2021,
- Employment in companies was 6 million 444 thousand jobs and fell by 0.9 percent,
- Industrial production in March It increased by 2.5 percent year on year. Economists expected an increase of 3.6 percent.
What do analysts say? Those from Credit Agricole point to Weakening of the economic situation. “March data on industrial and construction and assembly production as well as remuneration and employment in the enterprise sector indicate a gradually weakening wage pressure and the revival of domestic demand slower than expected. As a consequence,, as a consequence, We see a clear risk down for our GDP forecasts in the first quarter (3.1 percent y/y compared to 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year) ” – we read macro -bank experts. Experts emphasize that, however, that A fuller picture of the state of the Polish economy and the possibility of assessing the risk of a decrease in GDP forecasts, we will get On Wednesday after data publications on March retail and April sales (PMI) in the euro area.
We believe that the total overtones of the data from the Polish economy today are slightly negative for the gold rate and the profitability of Polish bonds. These data provide support for our forecast, according to which the MPC will reduce interest rates by 50PB at the May meeting
– we read in the Credit Agricole analysis.
However, ING economists remind you that in April the President of the NBP indicated that SLabor market cooling is a signalwhich can give a space for reduction of interest rates. They also believe that Tuesday's data from the market work strengthen the arguments of supporters reduction of the cost of moneyi.e. reduction of interest rates.
We believe that the slowing rate of salary growth, lower than the expectations of NBP Basic inflation, weaker US $ and relatively low oil prices will be arguments for cutting NBP feet in May
– they write.
Database effect and a problem with public investments
ING analysts also pay attention to the database effect in which it should be look at the data carefully industrial. “Relatively high annual growth rate of industrial production in March This is mainly due to relatively low reference base from March last year, when Production increased by only 4.0 percent. y/ywhich could have been associated with lower production activity in Holy Week, “we read.
Also in the case of remuneration, ING analysts write about the effect of the database: “In our opinion, the source of reduction of wage pressure in March this year was the base effect, because a year ago there were in a number of industries. Significant wage increases in response to an earlier increase in inflation. We estimate that the scale of these indexing compensation was clearly lower this year due to the lower level of inflation and the more difficult financial situation of enterprises, including the decrease in margins. In our opinion, the following months should bring continuation of the decrease in wage dynamics to around 6.0 percent.
ING analysts are also disturbed by data on building and assembly production due to inheritance in infrastructure construction sites. In their opinion, they flow from the government mixed signals on the starting cycle of public investments. “The construction of infrastructure facilities (-4.9 percent, +1.7 percent a month earlier) has decreased, which is still suggesting slow absorption of EU funds from cohesion policy and KPO. Before the end of 2024, this construction department recorded a clear revival, “we read.
Trump is mixing in the world, the poska is waiting with bated breath
The International Monetary Fund emphasizes that the economic slowdown in the USA in this The effect of the Customs Policy of the White House and uncertainty resulting from the actions of Donald Trump. How does American economic policy affect Poland?
Credit Agricole analysts: “Risk factor down for the expected PKB path in the coming quarters is the customs policy of D. Trump's administration. Exposure Poland is at this risk relatively small (see Macromap from 25.11.2024) “.
In our opinion, a possible significant increase in customs in the USA and the EU, leading to a strong decrease in trade between the two economies, would be an argument to reduce our GDP growth forecast in Poland (3.5 percent)
– sum up Credit Agricole experts.
ING analysts: “Production prospects still remain uncertain in connection with the revolution in the US trade policy. Although the results of the March study of logistics managers (PMI) indicate some improvement in the scope of new orders, including export, and reconstruction of production, but it is possible that this is due to building inventory in the USA stimulating production in Europe and Poland. As a result, during the window 90 days before the entry into force of the announced high American import duties we can be witnesses of building inventory, but in the long run over the industrial sector still there is a threat in the form of a customs war and disorders in supply chains. (…) regardless of the final shape of new customs tariffs between the most important economies in the world, there is a high risk of negative impact of increased uncertainty as to the conditions of international trade on the mood of enterprises and households, which will most likely translate into lower propensity for investment and consumption “ – We keep reading.
National demand will remain a key source of growth of the Polish economy, but we have revised the GDP growth forecast in 2025 with 3.5 percent. up to 3.2 percent There are also threats to economic growth in 2026
– sums up ing analysts.
Sources: IAR, ING, Credit Agricole