Unemployment in Poland has dropped slightly. In March it was at the level 5.3 percent compared to 5.4 percent in February and January. Earlier, the unemployment rate gradually grew for over half a year. In June 2024 it was 4.9 percent, from July to September 5.0 percent, in October again 4.9 percent. Then, she went up: 5.0, 5.1 and 5.4 percent In the labor offices they were registered 829.9 thous. peopleby 16.7 thousand less than a month earlier. The newly registered unemployed were 102.1 thousand. (in February 104.3 thousand).
Unemployment has increased first, now it falls
– looks like We have duplicated the scheme from recent yearsi.e. the increase in unemployment in the first two months of the year – says Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of the Lewiatan Confederation, organization of employers. – increases at the beginning of the year, are probably partly the result of the lack of starting new activation activities from the offices and the ending so far implemented. As a reminder, each time to send an unemployed person to internship, public works, etc., it deregister from the statistics of the Labor Office – he adds.
Disturbing increase in group layoffs. What's going on?
These are basic indicators. If you delve into the table of the Central Statistical Office, you can find other interesting data. For example, about people dismissed for reasons for workplaces – i.e. due to group layoffs. In March, the number of such registered unemployed 37.3 thous. This Most in over three yearsas Lewiatan's expert notes and this is not a duplication of the scheme.
Let us emphasize clearly: This does not mean drama on the labor market, because we are talking about only a few percent – about 4.5 percent. – unemployed. – However, it is an indicator of the situations of medium and large enterprises. These apparently have at the back of their heads that rising labor costs and energy prices will force them to clamp the belt or look for cheaper markets – believes Mariusz Zielonka.
Slow effect?
In March We pierced 37 thousandbut in January and February there was an increase – in the first two months of the unemployed, due to group layoffs there were 36.4 and 36.6 thousand, respectively. Earlier, these numbers persisted at 32-34 thousand for a long time. Could this be a reason to fear?
– although the overall level of the unemployment rate remains stable, and the CSO data does not show a significant deterioration in the labor market, indeed You can see a slight increase in group layoffs In March – says next.gazeta.pl Mateusz Jewish from Randstad.
This may be the result of the prolonged economic slowdown, which – despite some symptoms of improvement – still burdens some industries. Export sectors, companies most strongly exposed to earlier boom fluctuations and smaller enterprises, which do not have sufficient capital reserves, are particularly affected
– he adds.
According to the Central Statistical Office, in March, group layoffs were reported by 31 companies that declared that they want to release a total of 56.3 thousand. people. At the end of the first quarter of this year, it is over 70,000, the highest level since Pandemia. In the whole first quarter it is already 71 thousand. people, which is the same as during the pandemic. IMPORTANT: this is the declared exemptions for now, no longer made. AND, As indicated by Monika Fedorczukdirector of the Labor Office of the Capital City of Warsaw in a statement for “Rzeczpospolita”, Poczta Poczta Polska, which at the beginning of the year, announced a plan to dismiss several thousand people at the beginning of the year.
Stable on the labor market
On the other hand, spring and summer usually bring revival – the number of job offers is growing, especially in industry, construction and agriculture, where seasonal employment opportunities appear. This partly balances local reductions. The market remains relatively stable – rotation for payroll or related professional satisfaction is low
– notes Mateusz Żydek.
In his opinion, It may be more difficult to find a job in regions with higher unemploymentsuch as Warmia and Mazury or parts of Mazovia (outside Warsaw and neighboring poviats) and Podkarpacie. And he adds one more element of this puzzle: – increased availability of employees undoubtedly also affects wage dynamics. This year we can see slower salary growth rateat the level of about 7.7 percent year to year, while in previous years we often recorded double -digit increases.
The previously published GUS report shows that Wage growth has been inhibiting for four monthsand in March was the lowest since February 2021. At the same time, the average remuneration in companies has been pierced for the first time PLN 9,000 gross. As Andrzej Kubisiak from the Polish Economic Institute noted at the time, “reading can be an argument for reduction of percentage rates, for candidates and employers a signal that the time of two -digit nominal wage increases on the market for us.” Economists of Pekao SA have the same application. “On the other hand, what is important in the data for March is sealing the tendency observed since the beginning of the year. The rate of wage growth decreases and most likely decreased to a level that we can consider 'normal' and 'not shocking' ' – they wrote in the commentary on the data.
GUS data can be found under this link.