Expert: the situation on the labor market will improve, but problems will remain

In the opinion of Professor Jacek Męcina, a labor market expert and advisor to the Lewiatan Confederation, 2025 should be better, and this is due to optimistic development forecasts. This is due to the inflow of funds for investments from the National Reconstruction Plan (KPO) and the government's announcements that it will create a better climate for investments.

– Fortunately, for the first time in many years, the growth rate will also drop to a single-digit level minimum wage. The dynamics of wage growth in the corporate sector should also decline. I predict that its level will reach 9.5 – 9.8 percent. – predicts the expert.

– In the past year, the dynamics of wage growth remained at a high level of over 10%, which, given the skyrocketing energy costs, limited the development opportunities of companies. The increase in wages was influenced, among others, by: a significant increase in the minimum wage, which increased by nearly 65% ​​in 2023-2024. – pointed out prof. Jacek Męcina.

The expert added that in 2024, the more difficult situation on the labor market was compounded by a poor economic situation in euro zoneespecially in Germany.

– That is why we have even observed a slight decline in employment, which has not yet translated into an increase in unemployment, but is not a good signal for the economy. Particularly disturbing were the announcements of large restructurings and the transfer of companies' operations from Poland to other countries in the region, he noted.

Prof. Męcina pointed out that in 2025 there will still be wage pressure caused by a decrease in the number of employees on the market and an increase in inflation. – Greater pressure on wage growth can also be expected in the budgetary sphere, which will be a challenge for the government in the situation of a tight budget and the excessive deficit procedure launched by the European Commission – he noted.

According to Męcina, the structural problem of the Polish economy will remain growing energy priceswhich, together with increasingly higher labor costs, constitute a factor making it difficult to obtain new investments in Poland, and thus to increase employment.

As Męcina pointed out, entrepreneurs count on real actions to activate the unused potential of the Polish labor market – primarily professionally inactive people, especially well-educated women, but also to extend the professional activity of older people. However, it remains an open question in the expert's opinion whether these actions will compensate for the restrictions announced by the government in recruiting workers from abroad.

– It is necessary to significantly improve the functioning of procedures related to the examination of applications for consent to the employment and residence of foreigners, especially the introduction of full digitization. Increasing the effectiveness of these procedures should become the government's priority. The Polish labor market has been dependent on migration resources for almost a decade. Currently, the demand for foreign workers is estimated at 1.5 to 2 million – emphasized the Lewiatan advisor. He added that the government's withdrawal from the requirement to apply only an employment contract in the case of employing foreigners should be positively assessed.

Męcina noted that changes in the regulations on the minimum wage, which do not allow including some remuneration components in it, are controversial, including: bonuses and prizes.

– Entrepreneurs also point out that the proposal to introduce a 4-day working week, which is being hotly discussed in the public space, is premature. We are all aware that investments in technological transformation will mean serious changes in employment, but this is a perspective of a decade rather than the next few years, he said.

The expert pointed out that Poland will soon be implementing several EU directives, including: on pay equality and transparency. In Męcina's opinion, these regulations should have a positive impact on women's employment and the level of their remuneration.

– In this context, the parliamentary initiative (the draft Bright Earnings Act submitted in November by KO MPs – ed.) is only an element of the necessary change and should motivate the government to accelerate work on implementation, especially since in 2025 enterprises must already prepare for reporting on equal pay, which, in accordance with the regulations contained in the directive, will start in 2026 – he noted.

Męcina pointed out that Confederation Lewiatan, together with the Congress of Women, prepared a proposal for reporting principles on equal pay and appealed to the government to consider this project. – It has already been initially consulted with the business community and was also the subject of discussion at a meeting of the Labor Law Team of the Council for Social Dialogue – he said.

The advisor to the Lewiatan Confederation reminded that in the near future we will also have to implement the platform work directive (its aim is to improve the working conditions of over 28 million people who work in the EU via digital platforms).

– It raises more controversy and business concerns about too broad regulation of changes in the rules of application B2B contracts on the Polish labor market – noted Męcina. He added that the Lewiatan Confederation wants to start an autonomous dialogue with trade union representatives in 2025 on this matter.