Inflation report. New NBP forecast

On Friday, the National Bank of Poland published a report Fr. inflationcontaining the latest March inflation projection i GDP. The projection is a kind of forecast that assumes no interest rate changes.

Inflation report It is a document presenting the assessment of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) regarding the course of macroeconomic processes affecting inflation. Inflation and GDP projection is one of the premises on the basis of which the MPC makes decisions in the case NBP interest rates.

According to the central projection path, Inflation in 2025 will amount to 4.9 percent, in 2026 – 3.4 percent, in 2027 – 2.5 percent.

“In the years 2026-2027, the dynamics of consumer prices will remain under the influence of the weakening pace of salary growth and low demand pressure, reflected in negative values ​​of demand gap. In the direction of disinfection in the Polish economy there will also be a limited increase in import prices associated with low inflation in the environment of the Polish economy and a decrease in the index of energy raw materials in global markets” – – Written.

According to the assumptions of the current projection, regulatory changes will significantly increase dynamics energy prices In terms of yard to the second quarter of 2026, i.e. in the second half of 2026 it will be a clear decrease.

“As a consequence of these conditions – and assuming the NBP interest rates at an unchanged level – CPI inflation in Q3 2026 will return to the deviation range from the NBP inflation target specified as 2.5 percent +/- 1 percentage point and will remain in it until the end of the projection horizon” – added.

CPI inflation after reaching its highest level in the first half of 2025 (5.4 percent in Q1 and 5.2 percent in Q2) will decrease in Q3, however, according to the assumptions of the current projection, the dynamics of consumer prices at the end of this year. It will grow again and persist at an elevated level to the second quarter of 2026.

CPI inflation in 2025 IW and half of 2026 increases regulatory activities in the field of energy prices that increase the dynamics of these prices from maximum in the fourth quarter of this year. (9.3 percent of yards).

“From the fourth quarter of the year, the applicable law provides for the abolition of maximum prices for electricity and a return to accounting for household accounts by tariffs. At the assumption of the lack of changes in the level of tariffs, the prices of electricity will significantly increase, according to which households settle” – it was written.

In the coming quarters, the base inflation will still be at an elevated level. The projection assumes this indicator on average annually at 4.0 percent. in 2025, 3.6 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027.

According to the NBP, the dynamics of labor costs, which, according to market mechanisms, translates into prices with a certain delay translates into prices in the direction of a decrease in base inflation, in particular the dynamics of market services.

“At the same time in 2025, high dynamics of administered prices will be maintained as a result of existing and planned increases in sewage services, garbage collection and cold water supply. The scale of a decrease in base inflation during this period will limit the increase in excise duty to tobacco products. Over the space of 2025, a clear decrease in annual price dynamics will only affect food. including fruit and vegetables and butter on the market, “it was written.

In addition, from the second quarter of the dynamics of food prices in terms of RDR will no longer increase the return to the level of 5 percent. rates VAT for basic food products in April 2024.

The projection was founded GDP dynamics in 2025 at 3.7 percent, in 2026 – 2.9 percent The previous projection assumed an GDP increase of 3.4 percent. in 2025 and 2.8 percent in 2026.

“In the case of GDP, the change in relation to the expectations of the previous projection round significantly results from the assumption of the unused EU funds not used in 2024 adopted in the March projection.