Interest rates, ratings and performance of big banks. This is what awaits us in the coming days

“The Polish Monetary Policy Council will keep interest rates unchanged. At the November meeting, the Monetary Policy Council will, as usual, get acquainted with the results of the new NBP projection. We do not expect any significant changes in the projection compared to the previous version. CPI and core inflation in the third quarter of this year were 0, 1 percentage point higher than the 4.4% and 3.8% y/y GDP growth predicted by the July projection; we do not know yet, but there is a risk of a weaker result than the July forecast. although, on the other hand, the GDP reading in Q2 was better than the NBP forecast,” Santander BP economists wrote in the report.

“We still do not know the government's decision on energy prices in 2025, so the projection will probably again assume the expiry of the protective shields at the end of this year. As a result, in our opinion, the GDP and inflation trajectories should not differ significantly from those in July. The tone of the MPC statement and President Glapiński's Thursday conference will also, in our opinion, be similar to that in previous months,” they added.

All 17 forecasting centers expect no change NBP interest rates at the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council in November and until the end of 2024.

Eight forecasters expect a rate cut in the first quarter of next year, and the median expectation points to a resumption of cuts from the second quarter of 2025, starting from 25 basis points. in the second quarter, by another 50 bps in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter by 25 bps – in total by 100 bps throughout the year.

In the statement after Wednesday's meeting, the MPC will present an outline of the latest projection inflationthe entire report will be published in the following days.

In the July projection, the NBP assumed that CPI inflation in 2024 would be 3.7 percent, in 2025 it would amount to 5.2 percent, and in 2026 it would decrease to 2.7 percent. July, central path GDP assumes growth in 2024 at the level of 3.0 percent, in 2025 at the level of 3.8 percent, and in 2026 at the level of 3.1 percent.

Before investors learn the MPC's decision, the October PMI for Polish industry will be released on Monday. However, it should not have a major impact on market sentiment.

“The consensus assumes a minimal decline in the index for the Polish industry, we assume a minimal increase – such readings would not have a significant impact on the sentiment,” Santander BP economists wrote in the report.

On Thursday, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego will hold a bond sale auction for the COVID-19 Counteract Fund. Traditionally, information about supply will appear two days earlier. In the quarterly plan, BGK announced that the bonds that could be offered at auctions were: FPC0328, FPC0631, FPC0733, FPC0342 and others.

A number of congresses are planned throughout the week, attended by government representatives and company management board members. The 10th National Economic Summit OSG 2024 and the Food Market and Trade Forum will start on Monday, the Corporate and Investment Banking Congress on Tuesday, and the CFA Society Poland Annual Conference on Thursday.

The quarterly results publication season is underway on the Stock Exchange. In the coming days, they will present their financial data, among others: PKO BP, Pekao, BNP Paribas, Zabka Group, GPW and Dino.

Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes expect that in the third quarter of 2024, the net profit of the Bank Pekao group will amount to PLN 1,705.7 million, and the PKO BP group will amount to PLN 2,448.9 million.

DM BOŚ analyst Adam Stańczak estimates that increased volatility can be expected on the WSE in the coming days.

“This week, the recently observed volatility should be expected to continue, which will be further generated by the core markets' reactions to macro data, the results of the US presidential elections and, finally, the November FOMC meeting,” the analyst wrote in a comment after Thursday's session.

“Later, the market should enter the game phase for the final months of the year, which promise to be interesting after a 15% decline in WIG20 from the peak of the bull market at around 2,600 points,” he added.

At the end of the week (Friday), Fitch and S&P agencies have planned reviews of Poland's rating. In May, both agencies confirmed Poland's long-term rating in foreign currency at the “A-” level with a stable outlook.