According to Pekao analysts, we will soon have “sensational conditions” for reduction of interest rates. In turn, Goldman Sachs expect that the Monetary Policy Council will resume the monetary policy soothing cycle in the third quarter of this year.
“The prices of consumer goods and services in May 2025 increased by 4.1 percent in an annual basis, and compared to the previous month fell by 0.2 percent.” – The Central Statistical Office said on Friday on Friday. In the commentary on GUS data The economists of Bank Pekao wrote that the May decline in prices of month to month is the first since September 2023.
Inflation and interest rates
“We estimate that the base inflation (the most often appointed, i.e. excluding energy and food prices) took another small, but still a step down, lowering in May to 3.3 percent y/r. Slowly the effect of translating high labor costs into the prices of services. Momentum/impetus increase in base prices also entered the downward trend and in the trial of inflation is already NBP ” – said Pekao analysts in the commentary.
They added that the prices of food and non -alcoholic drinks increased in May by 0.4 percent in May. They assessed that food is one of those few categories, which unfortunately has potential for price increases in the coming months.
When the interest rate reduction
Bank economists believe that throughout the second quarter inflation It will stay nearly 4 percent. At the beginning of the second half of the year, there will be a large decrease in inflation, clearly below 3 %, resulting clearly from the base effects.
“Already in the third quarter of this year, CPI inflation will achieve a direct inflationary purpose (2.5 percent) with a very likely, persisting in its vicinity until the end of the year,” PEKAO economists believe.
They added that returning to the inflation target would occur earlier than they expected, because they hoped that it would not happen in the first half of next year. They reserved that base inflation would lower much slower.
“(…) these are sensational macroeconomic conditions for cutting interest rates: forecasted acceleration of GDP growth and inflation to levels in line with the inflationary. Bank Pekao.
Goldman Sachs with interest rates
Analysts Goldman Sachs Kevin Daly and Vinayak Iyer in the commentary stated that the president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) Adam Glapiński “de facto announced the maintenance of interest rates unchanged unchanged at the June meeting.”
They expect, however, that the MPC will resume the monetary policy soothing cycle in the third quarter of this year – most likely in July.
They also hope that the council “will carry out further interest rates of a total of 100 base points in the second half of this year.” In their opinion, taking into account the strong database effect energy pricesinflation will fall below the NBP target (2.5 percent +/- 1 percentage point) in July this year.
They emphasized that the preliminary reading contains only partial division of data, but the decrease in inflation “resulted mainly from lower fuel price inflation” and – as their estimates indicate – from the “further decrease in base inflation”.
“The decrease in oil prices caused a deflation in a transport fuel basket from -8.3 percent yaws in April to -11.4 percent yak this month. In other categories, food price inflation slightly increased from 5.3 percent yaws to 5.5 percent of the yard, and inflation in the category of energy carriers remained unchanged at the level of 13.1 percent rdr” – Iyer.
The largest banks in Poland
PKO BP is the largest bank in Poland. It has about 12 million customers, and the value of assets exceeded PLN 500 billion. The next places in the ranking of the largest banks in terms of assets are occupied by Pekao, Santander, ING and mBank.
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