Lithuanian authorities have said they possess credible evidence that a Ukrainian drone which exploded on their territory on Sunday, striking a moving car, had entered from Poland. Warsaw, however, has yet to confirm that any object crossed the border.
The incident occurred on Sunday morning when the unmanned aerial vehicle entered Lithuanian airspace and detonated, causing damage to a vehicle. NATO fighter jets stationed at Šiauliai Air Base were scrambled in response but were unable to visually identify the object before it exploded.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda described the event as further proof that “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is spilling over onto the Eastern flank of NATO and the EU”.
Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas revealed that preliminary information suggested the drone had arrived from Polish airspace. According to broadcaster LRT, he said he had already contacted his Polish counterpart to request a joint investigation into the incident.
Conflicting accounts from Warsaw and Vilnius
Poland’s defence ministry spokesman, Janusz Sejmej, told the Polish Press Agency on Sunday that radar systems had registered no confirmation of any object crossing the border from Poland to Lithuania.
Polish broadcaster Polsat, citing unnamed defence ministry sources, reported that officials in Warsaw believed the drone had actually taken off from within Lithuanian territory, approximately 30 kilometres from the Polish border, before flying deeper into the country.
Lithuania has pushed back firmly against that version of events. Deividas Matulionis, an adviser to President Nausėda, told the Baltic News Service on Monday that “we have credible evidence that the drone crossed the Polish border”.
Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius later confirmed there was “no doubt” the drone entered from Poland and that evidence pointed to it being “of Ukrainian origin”.
Ukraine apologises and cites Russian jamming
Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesman, Heorhii Tykhyi, issued an apology on Sunday afternoon, appearing to confirm that the drone was Ukrainian.
“We regret the incident that occurred this morning in Lithuanian airspace, which may have resulted from Russian electronic warfare diverting drones during an operation against legitimate military targets in Russia,” Tykhyi wrote. “We apologise for any disruption, risks, and concern this may have caused.”
He added that Ukraine would share all relevant information with Lithuanian partners to establish the full circumstances but provided no details about the type of drone, its launch point or intended target.
Lithuania shares borders with Latvia, Poland, Belarus – a Russian ally – and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Similar incidents occurred in March and May this year, when Ukrainian drones targeting Russia entered the airspace of NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland, likely due to Russian electronic jamming.
What this means for Poles in Poland
The incident underscores Poland’s position on the frontline of spillover effects from the war in Ukraine. While no Polish territory was struck, the conflicting accounts between Warsaw and Vilnius reveal the challenges NATO allies face in tracking and responding to airspace violations in real time.
For residents in eastern Poland, particularly near the Lithuanian and Ukrainian borders, such events may become more frequent as long as the conflict continues and Russia deploys electronic warfare to disrupt Ukrainian drone operations. Polish authorities have previously scrambled jets and activated air-defence protocols in response to airspace violations.
Poland remains a key transit and support hub for Ukraine, and incidents like this highlight the need for enhanced radar coordination and rapid information-sharing between NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank. The Polish defence ministry has not yet announced whether it will participate in Lithuania’s proposed joint investigation.
