– For many months I think that the beginning of interest rate discounts in Poland could be a breakthrough of the first and second half of the year – said economist Marek Zuber on TVN24 on TVN24.
– I hope that in June or July there will be such a possibility. But today we have too many unknowns – added Zuber.
During the March meeting, the MPC did not change the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland. The main interest rate of the Polish central bank is still 5.75 percent. The Council emphasized that her further decisions will depend on the information about the perspective inflation and economic activity. The MPC keeps the feet at the current level since October 2023.
Unpredictability of the Monetary Policy Council
As the economist added, “we have the most unpredictable monetary policy council of all those we had so far.” He also reminded that before entering a series of increases, NBP president Adam Glapiński emphasized that he would not interest rate increases.
Zuber pointed out that “at the last press conference Adam Glapiński proved that interest rates did not have a great impact on investments.” “Of course they have,” he said. – Once again we had such a social engineering. Indeed, there is a problem with investments in Poland. Such a very serious began in 2016, when the predictability of the economic environment collapsed – he explained.
He added that “among many factors that affect investments, interest rates were not the most important thing, due to the fact that there were no investments.” – But this cannot be concluded that the interest rates, that the cost of the loan, that how many entrepreneurs pay for loans, do not affect investments – said the guest of the program “Facts after facts”. – But what is more interesting, the other side – because as we know perfectly well, there are two sides today in the Monetary Policy Council, when it comes to monetary policy – at least part of the other side, has a similar opinion. Therefore, this argument, as it seems, today reigns among members of the council. Of course, I do not agree with it fundamentally – added Zuber.
– If we recognize that interest rates do not affect investments, they do not affect our desire to buy, it means that monetary policy, that this monetary policy transmission mechanism, or just changing interest rates, does not make sense – explained the economist.
When the loan installments start to fall
Zuber, when asked about what indicators are to be observed by Poles, waiting for lower loan installments, which will cause a decrease in interest rates, indicated the readings of inflation – this inflation must start falling – he explained.
– What we have now observed after February, i.e. we had 5.3 percent. Originally in January. We have 4.9 percent In February – of course they also change this January inflation, it results from a change of basket – he added, explaining that we must now wait at least two months, or in fact with the new basket this inflation will start to brake.
In March, the NBP published data on base inflation in February 2025. They show that base inflation calculated after excluding the administrated prices (subject to state control) was 3.5 percent. compared to 3.4 percent a month earlier. Base inflation, calculated after turning off the most variable prices, amounted to 4.9 percent. compared to 4.8 percent a month earlier. Basic inflation, calculated after switching off food and energy prices, amounted to 3.6 percent. compared to 3.7 percent a month earlier.
– We have one more difficult moment this year, which is called frostbite energy prices Zuber added. – We don't know if it will happen. But in my opinion, even if the government announced, for example in a month, that these prices will no longer be frozen, we will have the peak of inflation in the first quarter – he said, adding that the second important factor is the further dynamics of wage growth.
– If for the next two months, i.e. April – May, we will not have problems here, inflation will start to fall, also this base inflation, i.e. with the throwing of energy prices and energy carriers, I would have reduced interest rates in June for the first time – explained the guest “FPF”.