Payroll, inflation and Polish rating. The most important economic events this week

On the macro front, the week will start with the publication by the NBP inflation base for January and February. After Friday's inflation reading (4.9 percent in I and II), based on new weight in the CPI basket, Economists estimate the base rate in January at approx. 4 percent. And slightly below this level for February. In parallel with the base CPI Central Bank will give the payment balance for January.

Then the market will be waiting for Thursday GUS data for February about wages, employment, industrial and construction-assembly production and PPI. Readings will be analyzed in the context of swallows of progressive economic recovery, which signaled the readings from January.

Director of the NBP Analysis and Research Department, Jacek Kotłowski said last week during the presentation of the latest NBP projection that January data from the Polish economy was good and allow you to conclude that KW. GDP 3.7 percent

“It is expected that the surplus balance of the C/A will continue to fall when the industry is still waiting for revival. Probably the best (among all readings – ed.) The construction sector will manage. We expect to continue the moderate wage growth on the labor market” – assessed economists of PKO BP.

In the opinion of the economist, ING Adam Antoniak, February data should confirm that wage growth has decreased to a single -digit level, which should exert less pressure on the increase in inflation in the coming months.

In the opinion of the economist, ING Adam Antoniak, February data should confirm that wage growth has decreased to a single -digit level, which should exert less pressure on the increase in inflation in the coming months.

– The level of employment in February has hardly changed compared to January, which translates into its annual decline, but during this year yields should become positive, assuming that the level of employment will continue to stabilize – he explained.

Regarding industrial production, Antoniak pointed out that despite the increase in the PMI indicator in this sector above 50 points, the production continued to fall in February due to negative calendar effects as well as weak orders and external demand.

– Stagnation in industry should start to improve this year. Producers' prices remain in deflationbut this should be changed soon, “he added.

The day before the first day after the Thursday packet of data from the real economy of the Central Statistical Office will give readings of consumer and sector economic conditions for March.

The debt market will be paid to the bond auctions – on Tuesday of the Ministry of Finance, and on Wednesday Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. The Ministry of Finance will offer for sale on March 18 bonds with a total value of PLN 6-10 billion in series OK0127, WS0429, PS0130, WZ0330, DS1034.

A week in the markets will end (literally, publication after 22.00 on Friday) Moody's decision regarding the rating of Poland. The agency did not send any signals from the last year in September last year to the country's creditworthiness, which may suggest stabilization of the assessment.

From a technical point of view, from 2020, Moody's did not update/actions against the Polish rating (rating/update) on average once every two reviews, which, as a rule, (with exceptions) meant in such situations there was no publication of the current analytical report.

Last Friday, the Fitch agency confirmed Poland's credit assessment at the “A-” level with a stable perspective.

At the WSE, the market will look for subsequent bull market peaks or signals of the sentiment correction – last week the WIG20 index increased by 4.2 percent, piercing the level of 2,700 points, for the first time since July 2011. The WIG wide market index closed on Friday the highest in history, setting the intraraday record along the way.

– Technically looking, breaking over 2,700 points It means that WIG20 is played again at the highest levels for several years. As a result, technical resistance on the index chart must be sought rather at psychological levels. In this approach and when the session is closed in the 2.754 points, the radar enters the 2,800 points. Looking at the market strength, however, it is not worth forgetting about the upcoming date of settlement of the March series of terminated contracts on WIG20, which must be taken into account as one of the variables behind the increases in Warsaw – assessed the analyst DM BOŚ Adam Stańczak.

From the companies, the results will be given by several representatives of the development sector (Dom Development, Atal, Lokum), as well as Jeronimo Martins.

The government's order on Tuesday will be found draft amendment to the Act on wind farms – It provides for a departure from the 10H principle and facilitation in the field of repowering.