PiS alerts: for Trzaskowski's “avalanche increase in crimes” in Warsaw. We checked the statistics

At the end of March, Law and Justice published on the network spot showing how dangerous it is supposed to be in Warsaw. The party's profile on social media was alarming: “This is a scandal! Warsaw under Rafał Trzaskowski ceased to be a safe city. We have an avalanche increase in crimes (…)”. The sweat itself lasts almost a minute. At first, the words of journalists from various stations were shown from the context; They say, for example: “We have an avalanche increase in crimes”; “This crime is growing that these foreign gangs are growing in strength in Poland”; “Crime from the East in Poland, gangs, gangs”.

Then the teacher says: “Organized crime has returned. The inhabitants of some housing estates are terrorized by gangs of foreigners, and the services have ceased to control the situation” – and on the screen we see headers from the media describing the activities of foreign gangs in Poland; There are also men with black stripes in front of their eyes and the Minister of the Interior and Administration. “The times of the nineties come back: fear, chaos and powerlessness of the state,” says the teacher, and the illustration is the recording of the 90s, at which the well -known gangster Andrzej K. pseud. “Pershing”. We hear that Rafał Trzaskowski “has other priorities” because he allocated 40 million for LGBT, which is two times more than to support police. Fast assembly, dynamic graphics and sound effects intensify the atmosphere of danger. The spot was distributed by PiS politicianson party profiles in social media and its accounts supporters.

The message that during the presidency of Trzaskowski the capital ceased to be safe, PiS had already disseminated – e.g. PiS MP on February 25 Zbigniew Ziobro He alerted on Platform X that “Warsaw is flooded with a wave of crime”, that “bandits felt unpunished, because the services responsible for security are used by Donald Tusk for political accounts.” On March 24, PiS parliamentarians Mariusz Błaszczak and Anna Krupka At a press conference, they said that Warsaw ruled by Rafał Trzaskowski “ceased to be a safe city.” As the plaintiff Blaszczak, he gave the fact that “in Warsaw there are over ten thousand vacancies in the police” – which we verified in Concrete24 as false.

Four days later press conferenceOther PiS parliamentarians convened: Anna Gembicka, Sebastian Kaleta and Jarosław Krajewski. Kaleta talked about a “gigantic problem that overflows through Warsaw – a wave of serious crime, which unfortunately ends very tragically.” Krajewski said that “today the Achilles heel of Rafał Trzaskowski is security.” On April 3, MP Radosław Fogiel published on Platform X recordingat which – standing in front of the capital's town hall – he criticizes President Trzaskowski. “Warsaw is becoming less and less safe,” he argues.

In February, there was a lot of talk in the media about the growing activity of criminals in Poland from abroad – it was mainly about Georgian gangs.

In mid -February, the President of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski and the Minister of the Interior and Administration Tomasz Siemoniak met with the services, and then at a press conference Trzaskowski said: “Zero tolerance for foreigners who are conflicted with the law.” The head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration reported that, according to police statistics, among all suspects of crimes committed in Poland in 2024, foreigners constituted five percent. The President of Warsaw admitted that recently the city authorities have received reports indicating an increase in crime in the city being participating in foreigners. “Safety is the most important for all of us – he emphasized. – We work with the police, pay extra for common patrols, buy equipment, strengthen together [bezpieczeństwo] As part of the Warsaw program, we protect our monitoring and the Crisis Security and Management Center – enumerated Trzaskowski.

At the end of February Tomasz Siemoniak spokethat “foreign gangs are trying to enter Poland, master various types of crime,” and Donald Tusk wrote that he had received detailed information from the head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration about the strong activities of services towards foreign gangs. “Numerous detention has been made. Time for deportation,” he informed. At the beginning of March wrote: “Deportations have started. We effectively break Georgian gangs. Not words, but deeds.” The spokesman for the Border Guard, Lt. Col. Andrzej Juźwiak, announced that 17 citizens of Georgia left Poland on board a military plane.

In the PiS spot described here, at least one used journalist's statement She referred to crime throughout Poland, not in the capital. However, do statistics show “avalanche increase in crimes” in Warsaw itself? According to data from the Warsaw Police Headquarters, there is no such trend. Of course, one would like it to be better – that is, the lowest numbers – but the data about crime in the capital from recent years is not so alarming.

Rafał Trzaskowski has been the president of Warsaw since November 2018 (after winning in the next election, he was sworn in for the second term on May 7, 2024). So we checked crime statistics during both his term of office, and – for comparison – in a few years earlier (from 2015). He publishes these data every month on the website Police Capital Headquarters (KSP). Except that many units from neighboring poviats are subject to it, so in our analysis we consider only data from seven Warsaw commands. We chose the widest possible category and we present the number of all crimes.

The chart below shows that for ten years of crimes in Warsaw, more or less the same was recorded – of course, there were fluctuations, but the average is about 45-47 thousand. annually. The least crimes were found in 2020 – 43.6 thousand, but it was a year of pandemic and lockdown. Most crimes were found in 2022 – 51.5 thousand, but since then there are fewer of them. In 2024 – 47.7 thousand

As for data on the first quarter of 2025, also “avalanche increase in crimes” cannot be seen. In January, in all seven district commands of Warsaw, a total of 4.8 thousand were found. crimes, in February there was a decrease to 3.3 thousand, and in March growth – up to 4.6 thousand. Together it gives 12.7 thousand

How was it in previous years? Initially, 10-12 thousand were found in the first quarters. crimes, but in 2022 there was a significant increase – up to 14.1 thous. And then until 2024 the numbers also grew. However, this year there is a decline in crimes found in the first quarter – to the level that was in the first years of Trzaskowski's rule.