Poland's migration strategy – what will EU countries do after the decision of Donald Tusk and the Polish government? The expert explains

On Tuesday, the government adopted the migration strategy for Poland for 2025-2030which was announced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk over the weekend. One of its elements would be a temporary territorial suspension of the right to asylum. This aspect caused a lot of controversy, and the voices of opposition came mainly from humanitarian organizations.

European Commission spokeswoman Anitta Hipper said on Monday that it is important and necessary for the European Union to protect its external borders, in particular with Russia and Belarus. As Hipper recalled, both of these countries have been putting a lot of pressure on the external borders over the last three years, threatening the security of EU member states and the entire Union. At the same time, she emphasized that member states have international and EU obligations, including the obligation to ensure access to the asylum procedure.

Migration expert Jacob Kierkegaard from the Bruegel Institute think tank spoke in an interview with TVN24's correspondent in Brussels, Maciej Sokołowski, about how Tusk's government plan is assessed in Europe.

– I wouldn't say that this is the expected political reaction to what is happening at the border – he admitted.

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He pointed out that Tusk decided to take such actions before the meeting of the European Council, which takes place on October 17-18. – This is an experienced man. He knows that when he meets with colleagues from Europe, many of them will at least look positively at his decision and therefore this will shape the reactions to such actions from European institutions, especially the Commission, said the Bruegel Institute expert.

He also referred to the suspicions that Brussels would probably not decide to launch procedures related to a possible violation of EU law by Warsaw.

Moreover, he said, the European Commission's approach to the issue of dealing with migration pressure by member states has changed. – This broader change may mean that there will be no type of direct or immediate legal action by the Commission against Poland – he argued.

As Kierkegaard explained, “The EU and the European Commission have no power to question the actions of governments that temporarily introduce certain measures to defend the country's security at the border.” – At least from a legal point of view, it is the responsibility of the member states, so there is not much the EU can do – he added.

Sokołowski drew attention to the discrepancy that appears between security issues and human rights and the right to asylum. – In this case, will the right to asylum lose? – asked the journalist.

“I think so,” Kierkegaard replied. According to him, “the EU as a whole will decide that those asylum seekers, who in many cases arrive at the border at the invitation and with transport paid for by Belarus, will have their right to an individual (asylum) process suspended” – he spoke.

– We will simply prioritize the right of the Polish government, the right of every government in the EU, to defend and protect its external borders against this type of hybrid attacks – continued the migration expert. He admitted that “this will actually conflict with the rights of those who seek asylum.”

When asked what he expected from the next European Council summit, he said that the leaders would “rather broadly approve of what Prime Minister Tusk has done and will perceive it as justified.”

– Perhaps not unanimously, but certainly the majority of leaders will support it and they will say that this is a fully justified case of protecting the sovereignty not only of Poland, but of the entire Union – added Kierkegaard.