All potential presidential candidates from the Civic Coalition – Rafał Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski, as well as Szymon Hołownia, would win in the second round of elections against potential PiS candidates – Przemysław Czarnek and Karol Nawrocki – according to the latest CBOS poll.
In the CBOS survey, respondents were asked whether they would vote for KO candidates in the second round of the presidential elections. Radosław Sikorski or Rafał Trzaskowskior Przemysław Czarnek or Karol Nawrockiwho are currently considered the most likely candidates PIS.
CBOS also examined what support the leader of Poland 2050, the Speaker of the Sejm, could count on Szymon Hołownia in a clash with potential PiS candidates.
Poll: Trzaskowski, Sikorski and Hołownia win over Czarnek and Nawrocki in the second round of elections
The results indicate that each of the three candidates from the ruling coalition included in the study wins over the two PiS candidates included in the study. “The support for Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia in the case of a clash in the second round with both hypothetical PiS candidates is almost identical, and in the case of a clash with Karol Nawrocki, Radosław Sikorski is only slightly behind them in this respect,” notes CBOS.
Rafał Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski
The studio adds that in the case of a hypothetical rivalry with Przemysław Czarnek, Radosław Sikorski achieves a worse result than the other two politicians belonging to the ruling coalition, but support for him clearly exceeds support for Przemysław Czarnek.
Przemysław Czarnek and Karol NawrockiAdam Warżawa/PAP
The study also shows that the greatest mobilizing potential has a clash between Rafał Trzaskowski or Szymon Hołownia and Przemysław Czarnek – in a hypothetical situation of competition between these two pairs, the fewest people declared that they would not vote or refrained from voting.
Szymon HołowniaPAP/Piotr Polak
Trzaskowski vs Czarnek or Nawrocki
According to the study, if Rafał Trzaskowski and Przemysław Czarnekthen the KO candidate would get 53 percent. votes, and the PiS candidate 32 percent. In turn, 13 percent respondents would not vote for any of them, and 2 percent respondents have no opinion on this matter.
If Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki entered the second round, the PO vice-president would get 50 percent. votes, and the president Institute of National Remembrance – 24 percent 18 percent respondents would not vote for any of these candidates, and 8 percent does not know who to vote for or refuses to answer this question.
Sikorski vs Czarnek or Nawrocki
In the variant, when Radosław Sikorski and Przemysław Czarnek were in the second round, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would receive 48 percent. votes, and the former minister of education – 33 percent. 16% would not vote for any of these candidates. respondents, and 3 percent has no opinion on this matter. In the fight between Sikorski and Karol Nawrocki, respondents also indicated Sikorski's victory (49%). Nawrocki could count on 22 percent. votes. In this variant, 21 percent respondents would not vote for any of these candidates, and 9 percent she doesn't know who she would vote for.
Hołownia vs Czarnek or Nawrocki
If Szymon Hołownia and Przemysław Czarnek entered the second round, the Speaker of the Sejm would win 53 percent. up to 32 percent 14 percent would not choose any of these candidates. 1 percent has no opinion on this matter. In the second round, Hołownia would also win against Karol Nawrocki (51% to 25%). In this variant, 19 percent respondents would not vote for any of these candidates, and 6 percent no opinion.
Poll: who has the best chance of winning the presidential election?
CBOS respondents also indicated who, in their opinion, has the greatest chance of winning next year's presidential elections. The leader of the ranking is currently Rafał Trzaskowski, whose potential victory was indicated by 38 percent. respondents. Second place in this ranking was taken by Przemysław Czarnek (14%). Radosław Sikorski was third (11%).
The next places were taken by Szymon Hołownia, whose victory was indicated by 7%. respondents, Sławomir Mentzen (also 7%), Krzysztof Bosak (5 percent), Mariusz Błaszczak (4%), Karol Nawrocki (2%). None of the respondents believed in victory Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk (0% of responses).
12 percent respondents gave the answer – it's hard to say, and 1 percent refused to answer this question.
The study was carried out using computer-assisted telephone interviews and online interviews from November 18 to 20, 2024, on a sample of adult residents of Poland.