– Germany is afraid of a customs war with the US, which would harm its economy based on global trade – said Konrad Popławski, an expert at the Center for Eastern Studies. He noted that customs restrictions would also have a negative impact on Poland.
An expert from the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) pointed to disappointment German the result of the US presidential elections, in which he won Donald Trump. According to Popławski, the American president-elect symbolizes anti-globalization in Germany, which poses a threat to the local economic model based on trade openness and globalization.
– Germany, as one of the few large countries, supports the Mercosur agreement, hoping to increase exports to South American countries – emphasized Popławski.
“Germany's economy is already in a difficult situation”
– Germany has been maintaining a trade surplus in relations with the United States for years, which means that any restrictions or trade wars may bring serious losses to the German economy and industry – said the expert. He recalled that Germany had a similar problem during President Trump's first term.
– Even if there were clashes between America and… China in the customs area, Germany lost because many cars from its factories in China were sent to the US market. There are many complex export and production models, supply chains around the globe, and German companies are heavily involved in this. Each disruption causes huge problems and losses for German companies, and the German economy is already in a difficult situation, Popławski noted.
He added that the German economy is in recession for the second year in a row, so Germany is trying to look for room for compromise and even concessions so that the US does not lead to the erosion of the model.
Risk of a customs spiral
When asked about the phenomenon of the customs spiral, Popławski explained that it was about the mutual imposition of new customs restrictions, e.g. between the US and the EU.
– United States impose certain tariffs, the EU will have to retaliate and we will fall into a series of trade restrictions. Therefore, Friedrich Merz (the Christian Democrat candidate for chancellor), as a transatlantic politician who supports economic relations between Europe and America, is counting on the possibility of reaching an agreement with the USA, he noted.
When asked whether a new trade agreement with the US could solve the problem of tariff threats from Trump, he described it as “wishful thinking”. – Trump believes that Germany is exploiting the United States by taking advantage of American protection in the defense industry, and at the same time investing too little in its own defense. According to him, Germany's trade surplus drains jobs in the US, the expert added.
When the German economy is weak, Poland feels it
When asked how the EU-US customs war would affect Poland, the expert replied that “it wouldn't help us much.”
– When the German economy is already weak, we feel it too. Our companies also have reduced demand from Germany for products manufactured in Poland, Popławski noted.
According to him, everything depends on how Germany would react to American tariffs. – If they launched investment programs, gave up the so-called debt brake and stimulated the economic boom in Europe (which they have money for), then paradoxically this effect would not have to be so bad. However, if Germany continues to stick to the extremely pro-export model, stagnation and stagnation could occur in Europe, he emphasized.
Proposal of a candidate for chancellor
On Thursday, the Christian Democrat candidate for German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, supported proposing a new transatlantic free trade agreement to US president-elect Donald Trump.
He argued that it would prevent a tariff spiral, to the benefit of American and European consumers.
Trump has announced many times that he wants to introduce a basic tariff rate for all foreign products of 10-20%. and 60 percent tariffs on goods from China. He also threatened to block aid for Ukraine and will lead the US out of NATOif European allies do not pay for their security.
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