Russia intends to use upcoming peace negotiations over Ukraine to demand major concessions from NATO, including rolling back the Alliance’s military presence on its eastern flank to 1997 levels, according to diplomatic sources cited by the Daily Telegraph.
The demand would require the potential withdrawal of NATO troops from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Finland, which joined the Alliance in 2023, the British newspaper reported on Monday. According to anonymous diplomatic sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s true objective is securing concessions on NATO expansion, which he describes as the “original cause” of the war with Ukraine.
After a lengthy pause, direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States, are scheduled for November in the United Arab Emirates, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced on Friday.
Moscow’s conditions for returning to talks
According to Bankier.pl, the Daily Telegraph reported that the Russian leader was likely persuaded to return to negotiations following an American promise that Moscow’s demands would be discussed, as well as Washington’s decision to abandon further sanctions on Russian fuel exports.
A diplomat from one European country told the British newspaper that Europe’s position on potential concessions to the Kremlin remains unchanged, and that NATO consistently rules out withdrawing soldiers and military equipment “from former USSR states” – in this case Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Russia made similar demands regarding the reduction of NATO’s potential on the eastern flank and halting accession of new countries, particularly Ukraine and Georgia, in late 2021, several months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin’s claims were rejected at that time.
Poland a key target of Russian demands
Poland joined NATO in 1999 alongside Hungary and the Czech Republic in the Alliance’s first post-Cold War expansion. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, NATO has significantly strengthened its eastern flank, with thousands of Allied troops deployed to Poland and the Baltic states on a rotational basis.
The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, signed before Poland’s accession, established guidelines for the Alliance’s relationship with Moscow. Russia has previously cited this document when objecting to permanent NATO bases in former Warsaw Pact countries, though the Alliance maintains that Russia’s own actions have voided the agreement’s spirit.
What this means for Poles in Poland
For Poland, any acceptance of Russia’s demands would represent a fundamental reversal of three decades of security policy built since the end of communism. NATO troops stationed in Poland provide a direct deterrent against Russian aggression and form a core element of the country’s national security.
However, European diplomatic sources make clear that such concessions are not under consideration. Poland and other eastern flank members have consistently opposed any negotiation over NATO force posture that does not involve their direct participation. Under NATO rules, any decision affecting Alliance deployment requires unanimous consent from all 32 member states, giving Poland an effective veto.
For Poles living abroad who maintain close ties to family in Poland, the rejection of Russia’s demands by European diplomats offers reassurance that Poland’s security arrangements will not be bargained away without Warsaw’s consent. The upcoming talks in November will test whether Russia’s opening position is a genuine negotiating stance or an attempt to drive wedges between NATO members.
