– We are at a turning point. According to banks and corporates, an overall slowdown in portfolio growth is expected in the coming months loans for enterprises and reducing its contribution to the growth of aggregate demand. With a certain lag, and lags are very important here, this will lead to a slowdown in current inflation, and then we will see a turnaround in annual inflation. This will be confirmation that monetary policy has finally achieved the required rigidity to contain growth pricestaking into account all circumstances affecting inflation – said the president on Tuesday, November 19 bank Central Russia Elvira Nabiullin in the Duma (lower house of parliament), quoted by the website rbc.ru.
Russia. The economy is hitting the wall. Companies are severely affected by staff shortages
She announced that the first interest rate cuts may begin next year (it is currently at a record level of 21% since 2003.). The Russian central bank forecasts that it is official inflation next year it will stabilize at 4.5-5% and then drop to around 4%. Meanwhile, according to data as of November 18, annual inflation reached the level of 8.68%. However, over the last seven days, prices increased by an average of 0.37%. (this is an increase compared to 0.3% a week earlier) – he enumerates Reuters Agency. Inflation is fueled by rising prices of butter, sunflower oil, dairy products and potatoes.
Butter increased in price by 1.4% in just one week. Due to the high prices of this product, its theft is becoming more and more commonand stores started selling goods in anti-theft boxes. Since December 2023, butter prices in Russia have increased by approximately 26%.
Meanwhile, research conducted by the Russian Central Bank shows that 73 percent Russian enterprises are experiencing staff shortages, and the utilization rate of production capacity in factories has already exceeded a record 80 percent. The head of the bank emphasized that the Russian economy had already used almost all of its resources. – When the economy reaches the limits of its production capacity, but demand is still stimulated, stagflation occurs – said Nabiullina, quoted by the website belsat.eu.
The unemployment rate in Russia is 2.4 percent. – We have never had such low unemployment, and there are few countries where the level has dropped so much – emphasized the head of the Russian central bank.
The ruble is in bad shape. It is the weakest in 13 months
Meanwhile the Russian ruble is getting weaker. On Thursday, November 21 at 10 for one dollar you could buy 100 rubles, and for one euro – 106 rubles. The Russian currency has reached this level for the first time since October 2023. The ruble has been weakening ever since attack Ukraine to the Kursk region (from August 6). Since then it has lost almost 19%. values - results from the LSEG data he refers to Reuters Agency.