From Wednesday (January 1) Russian gas natural gas no longer flows to Europe through Ukraine. At the end of the year, the contract between the Ukrainian Naftogaz and Gazprom expired, and was extended for the last time in December 2019. As previously announced, the authorities in Kiev decided not to extend the contract for another five years. As they explained, they did not want to enable the aggressor to collect funds to continue the war.
Will Europe suffer from the loss of Russian gas? “It doesn't apply to Poland”
The decision to close transit through Ukraine was supported by the European Union institutions. They indicated that only about four percent of the total demand for raw materials reached Europe this way. – Gas transit through Ukraine covered only a few European countries. It concerned mainly the countries of Central Europe. If we take into account the picture of the whole of Europe, we can say that this is not particularly important – it is only a few percent of the total gas supplies. From this point of view, it will not be a threat to the security of supplies to Europe – noted Maciej Jakubik, project coordinator for EU regulations at Forum Energii.
The expert pointed out in an interview with Gazeta.pl that the decision to close transit through Ukraine is important for those few countries that used this source of supplies.
Slovakia was the most dependent on this transit route, and to some extent also the Czech Republic, Austria and Hungary. This actually does not apply to Poland at all, because from 2022 we do not consume gas from Russia. We have supplies from other sources – including Norway via the Baltic Pipe and the LNG terminal
– he emphasized.
Slovakia threatens Ukraine with cutting off energy supplies. “This is the method the Russians use”
It was the Slovak authorities who became known as the main opponents of stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. Prime Minister Robert Fico argued that the decision would have a “drastic” impact on EU member states and claimed that it would lead to an increase in electricity prices in the community. At the end of the year, he also announced that in response to stopping the transit of Russian gas, his country may give up electricity supplies to Kiev. Such a move would negatively impact Ukraine's emergency power supply capabilities – crucial in winter and in the context of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
– The hoot from the Slovak Prime Minister was actually a form of nasty blackmail. It went so far as to threaten to cut off electricity exports to Ukraine. This shows that Slovakia cares very much about this. Gas transport brought it significant revenues, so we can expect that it will try to persuade Ukraine to restart transit, said Maciej Jakubik.
The question remains to what extent blackmail is an appropriate negotiation tactic. Rather, it is the method that the Russians use. This is not the way we act within the European community
– summed up our interlocutor.
Slovakia can obtain gas from other sources. “I don't want to use them”
The Forum Energii expert also pointed out that Slovakia is not deprived of access to alternative sources of raw material. – Please remember that we have a common gas market in the European Union. We have transmission capacity that allows us to diversify routes and supply sources. Slovakia is well connected to both the Czech Republic and Austria. These, in turn, can use further transmission systems, for example from LNG terminals on the Croatian island of Krk and in Italy, he said.
In response to Slovakia's position, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that prime minister Fico “fights for money”. He even suggested that the head of the Slovak government could have received an “order to open a second energy front” from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Slovakia has the opportunity to diversify its supplies, but does not want to use them. The reason is probably the benefits that business and political circles derived from the transmission and trade of Russian gas
– said Maciej Jakubik.
Gazprom cut off from the main export market. “They lost 90 percent of him.”
The closure of transit through Ukraine will undoubtedly be felt the most by the Russian side. – These losses will certainly be very severe for Gazprom. This was actually their last major transit corridor. Recently, they have been transmitting several billion cubic meters of gas annually through it, and in the past it was even several dozen billion. This decline was already noticeable, and now it will be even more severe – explained Maciej Jakubik.
Reuters Agency Recalls that in 2020, when the last five-year agreement with Gazprom began, approximately 65 billion cubic meters of gas flowed annually to Europe through Ukraine. Last year, Russia exported only 14 billion cubic meters of this raw material this way. According to agency estimates based on current prices gas, closing transit through Ukraine may bring additional losses to Moscow worth the equivalent of five billion dollars annually.
Europe has been the main export market for Gazprom for years. Now they've lost 90 percent of it
– our interlocutor emphasized.
Russia still has one route at its disposal. “It has much lower bandwidth”
Russia can still send gas through pipelines bypassing Ukraine. However, its possibilities in this area are clearly limited. – Now the only alternative to Gazprom are the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines. Both run through the Black Sea and connect to the transmission system in Turkey. From there they run to Bulgaria and on to Central Europe, including Hungary. This is actually the only route through which Russia can currently send gas to Europe, Maciej Jakubik pointed out.
Moreover, transport via this route involves a reduction in the amount of raw material reaching Europe and higher costs.
TurkStream has much lower capacity than the Ukrainian transport system and follows a much longer route, across the sea and through several countries. Therefore, you will need to pay additional transit fees. Moreover, the route through Turkey also ensures gas supplies to Turkish consumers, so not all capacity can be used to transmit gas to Europe.
– noted the Forum Energii expert.