The changes on the German political scene are becoming more and more visible. And why can Poland benefit from this?

“Tusk wants to talk about Ukraine without Germany”, “Poland wants to take a leading role in European defense policy” – such titles in the German press are the result of the press conference of the Polish Prime Minister on November 9, who announced intensive cooperation with countries that have “a very similar view” to the geopolitical situation.

– We can expect a visit soon by the President of France in Warsaw, the Prime Minister of Great Britain or myself in London. In a few days we will host the Secretary General of NATO. I will also visit Stockholm and meet there with the Scandinavian and Baltic countries – said Prime Minister Donald Tusk on November 9.

Donald Tusk did not mention Germany in his statement, which “Süddeutsche Zeitung” comments as follows: “It seems that Tusk would like to take over the leading role in European defense policy from Germany – because Berlin is not fulfilling it. This may be perceived as an affront or simply as a very legitimate defense of interests.

There is diplomatic fever in Europe after the election of Donald Trump as the new president of the United States. The current way of thinking is best reflected in the words of the outgoing head of EU diplomacy in Warsaw.

– It cannot be that Americans act and Europeans only react. We have to take responsibility ourselves. We must assure Ukraine that our support will continue, says Josep Borrell, the outgoing head of EU diplomacy.

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Trump's election coincided with the collapse of the government coalition in Germany. The Brussels portal Politico wrote in a text titled “Donald Tusk takes over” that Warsaw is trying to take advantage of Berlin's problems, and “after the German Chancellor did not allow Tusk to attend the October meeting of the Quad (USA, Great Britain, France and Germany), the Polish Prime Minister He returned the favor by saying that Berlin was too busy with the collapse of the ruling coalition to deserve an invitation.

On the evening of November 10, on ARD television, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he planned to talk to Vladimir Putin soon. The question is what position he will have in a conversation with the Russian dictator. According to reports in the German press, the Bundestag will vote on a vote of confidence in the Scholz government on December 16, which will probably result in early elections being called. Their unofficial date is February 23.

– It should be assumed that Olaf Scholz will not be the next Chancellor of Germany. This means that if early elections take place, the SPD, currently hovering around 15 percent, has no chance of proposing the chancellor as head of government. In this sense, this is the end of Olaf Scholz's political career – comments Prof. Arkadiusz Stempin from the University of Freiburg and the Korczak University.

The new chancellor will most likely be Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU/CSU bloc, which is clearly leading in the polls. Such a scenario would improve relations with Tusk's government, because the German Christian Democrats and the Civic Coalition are allies on the European party scene.